Cooper Rush started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Falcons is now +28 points on Bengals at Falcons. Read more →
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Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons
Game data updated 2 min ago · markets priced 10 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Bernabeu, Madrid · Sunday, Nov 8, 9:30 AM ET · neutral site · outdoors · wind 1 mph, 51°F
Cincinnati Bengals5–2 · Elo 1568 · Joe Burrow (+17 Elo)
Atlanta Falcons
3–5 · Elo 1457 · Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo) · Home
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CINATL
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | CIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CIN 64% | 36% | 64% | ATL 1457 vs CIN 1568, implied spread ATL +4.0 |
| Closing spread | CIN 59% | 41% | 59% | ATL +3 |
| Sportsbooks | CIN 60% | 40% | 60% | |
| Kalshi | CIN 61% | 40% | 61% | |
| Polymarket | CIN 61% | 40% | 61% | |
| The blend | CIN 63% | 37% | 63% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Cincinnati Bengals over the Falcons: Elo 64%, market 60%. Tight agreement: go above both. Penix is worth 28 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 46 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 37.
- Rest: ATL 7 days, CIN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo). CIN: Joe Burrow (+17 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 1 mph, 51°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread ATL +3, total 52. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $19k traded, $14k open · Polymarket: $850 traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | Kyle Dugger | S | Out | Quadriceps · out |
| CIN | Cashius Howell | DE | Questionable | Wrist · Howell (wrist) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Titans. |
| CIN | Cedric Johnson | DE | Questionable | Ankle · Johnson (ankle) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Falcons. |
| CIN | DJ Turner II | CB | Questionable | Ankle · Turner (ankle) is considered day-to-day, NFL reporter Jordan Schultz reported Monday. |
| ATL | Anterio Thompson | DT | Out | Undisclosed · Thompson posted on social media this week that he was diagnosed with a genetic mutation on his spinal cord in early May and indicated that he was told he will "never play football again," Josh Kendall of The Athletic reports. |
| ATL | Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | Out | Hamstring · out |
| ATL | Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | Out | Hamstring · out |
| ATL | Divine Deablo | LB | Out | Forearm · out |
| ATL | Samson Ebukam | DE | Out | Hamstring · Ebukam (hamstring) has been ruled out for Atlanta's Week 9 matchup versus the Bengals, William McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| ATL | Zachariah Branch | WR | Out | Hamstring · Coach Kevin Stefanski noted Monday that Branch (hamstring) won't play Sunday against the Bengals, William McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. |
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 10 AM ET; last change Mon 7:10 PM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (ATL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 40% | 40% | — | 42 |
| Polymarket | 40% | 40% | — | 51 |
| Sportsbooks | 40% | 40% | — | 8 |
Consensus over time