Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 3 min ago · markets priced 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium · Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 11 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites)
Detroit Lions5–2 · Elo 1569 · Jared Goff
Miami Dolphins
1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+90 Elo) · Home
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | DET | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 59% | 41% | 59% | MIA 1369 vs DET 1569, implied spread MIA +2.5 |
| Closing spread | DET 70% | 30% | 70% | MIA +7 |
| Sportsbooks | DET 74% | 26% | 74% | |
| Kalshi | DET 76% | 25% | 76% | |
| Polymarket | DET 75% | 26% | 75% | |
| The blend | DET 71% | 29% | 71% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Detroit Lions over the Dolphins: Elo 59%, market 75%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; wind 11 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 28 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 21.
- Rest: MIA 7 days, DET 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. MIA: Malik Willis (+90 Elo). DET: Jared Goff (0 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 11 mph, 87°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread MIA +7, total 50.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $12k traded, $9k open · Polymarket: $981 traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | Jimmy Rolder | LB | Out | Hamstring · Rolder will miss the remainder of the season due to a hamstring injury, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| DET | Kerby Joseph | S | Out | Knee · Joseph (knee) has been ruled out for Sunday's game against the Vikings. |
| DET | Jack Campbell | LB | Doubtful | Neck · The Lions announced Monday that "preliminary indications are positive" for Campbell (neck), who continues to rest and recover at a Detroit-area hospital. |
| DET | Brian Branch | S | Questionable | Concussion · Branch (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings. |
| DET | Cade Mays | C | Questionable | Ankle · Mays sustained a low ankle sprain during Detroit's win over the Vikings on Sunday, Jeremy Fowler of ESPN reports. |
| DET | D.J. Reed | CB | Questionable | Hip · Reed (hip) is not expected to practice Wednesday, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| DET | DJ Wonnum | LB | Questionable | Concussion · Wonnum (concussion) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Vikings. |
| DET | Jacob Saylors | RB | Questionable | Neck · Saylors (neck) is not expected to practice Wednesday, Nolan Bianchi of The Detroit News reports. |
| MIA | Kadyn Proctor | OT | Out | Concussion · out |
| MIA | Malik Herring | DE | Questionable | Undisclosed · Herring (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against New England. |
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 2 PM ET; last change Mon 8:20 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward MIA by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (MIA) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22% | 26% | +4 | 32 |
| Kalshi | 20% | 25% | +4 | 25 |
| Sportsbooks | 23% | 26% | +4 | 5 |
Consensus over time