Jaguars at Ravens $211k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
Game data updated 3 min ago · markets priced 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Gillette Stadium · Sunday, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET · outdoors · wind 2 mph, 48°F (cold helps favorites)
Green Bay Packers5–3 · Elo 1533 · Jordan Love · off a bye
New England Patriots
5–3 · Elo 1599 · Drake Maye · Home
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NE | GB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 63% | 63% | 37% | NE 1599 vs GB 1533, implied spread NE −3.6 |
| Closing spread | NE 59% | 59% | 41% | NE -3 |
| Sportsbooks | NE 58% | 58% | 42% | |
| Kalshi | NE 59% | 59% | 41% | |
| Polymarket | NE 60% | 60% | 41% | |
| The blend | NE 62% | 62% | 38% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
New England Patriots over the Packers: Elo 63%, market 59%. Tight agreement: go above both. GB off a bye; wind 2 mph, 48°F (cold helps favorites).
Details
- Importance 41 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 55.
- Rest: NE 7 days, GB 10 days. GB off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. NE: Drake Maye (+1 Elo). GB: Jordan Love (+0 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 2 mph, 48°F (cold helps favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread NE -3, total 47. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $34k traded, $23k open · Polymarket: $1k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB | Donovan Jennings | G | Out | Coach's Decision · inactive |
| GB | Jonnu Smith | TE | Out | Coach's Decision · Smith (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| GB | Kaleb Johnson | RB | Out | Coach's Decision · Johnson (coach's decision) is inactive for Thursday's game against the Panthers, Mike Spofford of the team's official site reports. |
| GB | Micah Parsons | DE | Out | Knee - ACL · Head coach Matt LaFleur said Monday that the Packers' "intention" is for Parsons (knee) to resume practicing in Week 9, Weston Hodkiewicz of the team's official site reports. "It's gonna be a process trying to get him back," LaFleur said. "We're hopeful he'll be able to get out there sometime this week." |
| GB | Sean Rhyan | G | Out | Ankle · inactive |
| GB | Travis Glover | OT | Out | Knee · inactive |
| GB | Zaire Franklin | LB | Out | Shin · inactive |
| GB | Christian Watson | WR | Questionable | Ribs · Packers passing game coordinator Jason Vrable said Monday that Watson (ribs) is sore but "doing great," Matt Schneidman of The Athletic reports. |
| NE | A.J. Brown | WR | Out | Ankle · When asked whether Brown (ankle/knee) might practice at some point this week, coach Mike Vrabel said Monday "We'll see," Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports. |
| NE | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | Out | Illness · out |
| NE | Gabe Jacas | LB | Questionable | Knee · Jacas (knee) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against Miami, Doug Kyed of the Boston Herald reports. |
| NE | Hunter Henry | TE | Questionable | Foot · Henry (foot) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game in Miami. |
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 5 PM ET; last change Mon 10:37 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward NE by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NE) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 57% | 59% | +2 | 24 |
| Polymarket | 56% | 60% | +3 | 35 |
| Sportsbooks | 58% | 58% | +1 | 4 |
Consensus over time