Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 8, 9:05 PM · dome
Houston Texans0–1 · Elo 1556 · C.J. Stroud · off a bye
Los Angeles Chargers
0–1 · Elo 1481 · Justin Herbert (+18) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | HOU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 55% | 45% | 55% | LAC 1481 vs HOU 1556, implied spread LAC +1.4 |
| Closing spread | LAC 57% | 57% | 43% | LAC -2.5 |
| The blend | LAC 54% | 54% | 46% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Chargers over the Texans: Elo 45%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; HOU off a bye.
Details
- Rest: LAC 7 days, HOU 14 days. HOU off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: LAC +18 (Justin Herbert), HOU +1 (C.J. Stroud). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.