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Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers
Game data updated 3 min ago · markets priced 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · SoFi Stadium · Sunday, Nov 8, 4:05 PM ET · dome
Houston Texans2–5 · Elo 1498 · C.J. Stroud · off a bye
Los Angeles Chargers
0–7 · Elo 1392 · Justin Herbert (+18 Elo) · Home
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HOULAC
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | HOU | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 59% | 41% | 59% | LAC 1392 vs HOU 1498, implied spread LAC +2.7 |
| Closing spread | HOU 63% | 37% | 63% | LAC +4.5 |
| Sportsbooks | HOU 66% | 34% | 66% | |
| Kalshi | HOU 65% | 36% | 65% | |
| Polymarket | HOU 65% | 36% | 65% | |
| The blend | HOU 64% | 36% | 64% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Houston Texans over the Chargers: Elo 59%, market 65%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; HOU off a bye.
Details
- Importance 29 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 14.
- Rest: LAC 7 days, HOU 14 days. HOU off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. LAC: Justin Herbert (+18 Elo). HOU: C.J. Stroud (+1 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread LAC +5, total 40.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $22k traded, $20k open · Polymarket: $28 traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | Blake Fisher | OT | Questionable | Thumb · questionable |
| HOU | David Montgomery | RB | Questionable | Groin · Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans said Monday that he has "no significant update" on the status of Montgomery (groin) heading into a Week 9 matchup with the Chargers, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports. |
| HOU | Jalen Pitre | S | Questionable | Shoulder - AC Joint · questionable |
| HOU | Reed Blankenship | S | Questionable | Concussion · Blankenship (concussion/hand) underwent surgery on his left hand in October, Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle reports. |
| LAC | Brenen Thompson | WR | Out | Quadriceps · out |
| LAC | Deane Leonard | CB | Out | Concussion · out |
| LAC | Donte Jackson | CB | Out | Hamstring · Jackson (hamstring) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Rams. |
| LAC | Kayode Awosika | G | Out | Lower Leg · out |
| LAC | Rodney Shelley | CB | Out | Hamstring · Shelley (ankle) is inactive for Sunday's game against the Rams. |
On the Wire
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 5 PM ET; last change Mon 10:15 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from LAC by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (LAC) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 36% | 36% | -1 | 50 |
| Sportsbooks | 38% | 34% | -4 | 5 |
| Polymarket | 36% | 36% | -1 | 23 |
Consensus over time