Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
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Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders
Game data updated 3 min ago · markets priced 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Northwest Stadium · Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 6 mph, 54°F
Los Angeles Rams4–4 · Elo 1575 · Matthew Stafford
Washington Commanders
2–4–1 · Elo 1443 · Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo) · Home
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LARWSH
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | WSH | LAR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LAR 60% | 40% | 60% | WSH 1443 vs LAR 1575, implied spread WSH +2.8 |
| Closing spread | LAR 66% | 34% | 66% | WSH +5.5 |
| Sportsbooks | LAR 68% | 32% | 68% | |
| Kalshi | LAR 71% | 29% | 71% | |
| Polymarket | LAR 70% | 30% | 70% | |
| The blend | LAR 67% | 33% | 67% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Los Angeles Rams over the Commanders: Elo 60%, market 70%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine.
Details
- Importance 38 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 35.
- Rest: WSH 7 days, LAR 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. WSH: Jayden Daniels (+15 Elo). LAR: Matthew Stafford (0 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 6 mph, 54°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread WSH +5.5, total 48. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $11k traded, $7k open · Polymarket: $43 traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
- Markets disagree with each other: Books 32% vs Kalshi 29%, 3 points apart.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAR | Colby Parkinson | TE | Out | Ribs · out |
| LAR | Joe Cardona | LS | Out | Ankle · out |
| LAR | Dean Connors | RB | Questionable | Hand · Connors suffered a broken hand in Sunday's 24-9 win over the Rams. |
| LAR | Grant Stuard | LB | Questionable | Hamstring · Stuard is battling a hamstring injury, Nate Atkins of The Athletic reports. |
| LAR | Jaylen Watson | CB | Questionable | Shoulder · Watson (shoulder) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's contest against the Chargers, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports. |
| LAR | Matthew Stafford | QB | Questionable | Arm · Stafford left the locker room after Sunday's 24-9 win over the Charger with a bag of ice wrapped to his right arm, and Rams coach Sean McVay acknowledged Monday that the quarterback has been dealing with some arm soreness, Adam Grosbard of The Orange County Register reports. |
| LAR | Trent McDuffie | CB | Questionable | Back · McDuffie (back) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against the Chargers, Stu Jackson of the Rams' official site reports. |
| WSH | Daron Payne | DT | Out | Foot · out |
| WSH | Javon Kinlaw | DT | Out | Knee · out |
| WSH | Jeremy McNichols | RB | Doubtful | Foot · McNichols is getting additional opinions on the foot injury that he suffered Sunday against the Eagles, but there's an expectation that he'll miss multiple months, Tashan Reed of The Washington Post reports. |
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 2 PM ET; last change Mon 9:05 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from WSH by 5 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (WSH) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 35% | 29% | -5 | 37 |
| Polymarket | 35% | 30% | -4 | 54 |
| Sportsbooks | 33% | 32% | -1 | 3 |
Consensus over time