New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Sunday, Nov 8, 6:00 PM · outdoors
New York Jets1–0 · Elo 1444 · Geno Smith (+22)
Kansas City Chiefs
1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | KC | NYJ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 70% | 70% | 30% | KC 1518 vs NYJ 1444, implied spread KC −5.8 |
| Closing spread | KC 76% | 76% | 24% | KC -9.5 |
| The blend | KC 74% | 74% | 26% |
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The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Jets: Elo 70%, market 76%. Clear favorite, take the average. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Rest: KC 7 days, NYJ 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes), NYJ +22 (Geno Smith). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.