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New York Jets at Kansas City Chiefs
Game data updated 3 min ago · markets priced 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Sunday, Nov 8, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 7 mph, 63°F
New York Jets2–6 · Elo 1380 · Geno Smith (+22 Elo)
Kansas City Chiefs
5–2 · Elo 1539 · Patrick Mahomes (+46 Elo) · Home
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | KC | NYJ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 79% | 79% | 21% | KC 1539 vs NYJ 1380, implied spread KC −9.3 |
| Closing spread | KC 76% | 76% | 24% | KC -9.5 |
| Sportsbooks | KC 79% | 79% | 21% | |
| Kalshi | KC 81% | 81% | 19% | |
| Polymarket | KC 81% | 81% | 19% | |
| The blend | KC 82% | 82% | 18% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Jets: Elo 79%, market 80%. Tight agreement: go above both. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Importance 28 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 18.
- Rest: KC 7 days, NYJ 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. KC: Patrick Mahomes (+46 Elo). NYJ: Geno Smith (+22 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph, 63°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread KC -9.5, total 46. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $26k traded, $23k open · Polymarket: $773 traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYJ | Breece Hall | RB | Out | Quadriceps · Hall (quadriceps) is considered "good to go" and is expected to return to action in next Sunday's game against the Chiefs, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports. |
| NYJ | David Bailey | LB | Out | Groin · out |
| NYJ | Joseph Ossai | DE | Out | Ankle · out |
| NYJ | Max Mitchell | OT | Out | Concussion · out |
| KC | Mansoor Delane | CB | Out | Shoulder · out |
| KC | Omarr Norman-Lott | DT | Out | Knee - ACL · The Chiefs designated Norman-Lott (knee) to return from injured reserve Wednesday. |
| KC | Peter Woods | DT | Questionable | Neck · Woods (neck) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's contest against the Broncos. |
On the Wire
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 2 PM ET; last change Mon 9:29 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from KC by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (KC) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 82% | 81% | -1 | 37 |
| Polymarket | 81% | 81% | -1 | 35 |
| Sportsbooks | 80% | 79% | -1 | 5 |
Consensus over time