Game plan · Week 13
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 40.8 points this week, give or take 64 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 41.7.
A typical week lands between -23 and 105. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -41.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 14 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC at LAR Thu 8:15 PM ET | LAR 56% | 55% | +0.3 | No market line yet. |
| DET at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET | DET 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| JAX at CHI Sun 1:00 PM ET | CHI 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LAC at TB Sun 1:00 PM ET | TB 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| SF at NYG Sun 1:00 PM ET | SF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CIN at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| WSH at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET | WSH 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| GB at NO Sun 1:00 PM ET | GB 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| MIA at DEN Sun 4:05 PM ET | DEN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| PHI at ARI Sun 4:05 PM ET | ARI 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| BUF at NE Sun 4:25 PM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CAR at MIN Sun 4:25 PM ET | MIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| HOU at PIT Sun 8:20 PM ET | PIT 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| DAL at SEA Mon 8:15 PM ET | SEA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.