Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 15, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 20, 9:25 PM · dome
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LV | DEN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 51% | 49% | 51% | LV 1420 vs DEN 1547, implied spread LV +0.3 |
| Closing spread | DEN 63% | 37% | 63% | LV +4.5 |
| The blend | DEN 60% | 40% | 60% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Denver Broncos over the Raiders: Elo 51%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
Details
- Rest: LV 7 days, DEN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: LV +70 (Kirk Cousins), DEN -1 (Bo Nix). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.