Predictions · Week 15

The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

Our lock and bold call of the week, and our pick on every game, are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.

Locks went 84% over 24 seasons; this season's record is on the leaderboard.

Game	Elo	Spread	Books	Kalshi	Polymarket	Blend	System	Crowd	Sharp crowd	Imp.	Spot	Result
SF at LAC	45%	57%	—	—	—	54%	—	—	—	—	Big disagreement	Fri 1:15 AM
SEA at PHI	50%	54%	—	—	—	53%	—	—	—	—	Coin flips	Sat 10:00 PM
CHI at BUF	63%	60%	—	—	—	63%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	Sun 1:20 AM
CIN at CAR	45%	43%	—	—	—	41%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	Sun 6:00 PM
CLE at NYG	59%	63%	—	—	—	62%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Sun 6:00 PM
BAL at PIT	50%	43%	—	—	—	44%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Sun 6:00 PM
NO at TB	58%	60%	—	—	—	62%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	Sun 6:00 PM
ATL at WSH	63%	60%	—	—	—	63%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	Sun 6:00 PM
JAX at HOU	54%	59%	—	—	—	58%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Sun 6:00 PM
MIA at GB	53%	78%	—	—	—	72%	—	—	—	—	Big disagreement	Sun 6:00 PM
IND at TEN	45%	46%	—	—	—	45%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Sun 6:00 PM
NYJ at ARI	58%	54%	—	—	—	55%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Sun 9:05 PM
DAL at LAR	64%	67%	—	—	—	68%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	Sun 9:25 PM
DEN at LV	49%	37%	—	—	—	40%	—	—	—	—	Big disagreement	Sun 9:25 PM
DET at MIN	71%	46%	—	—	—	52%	—	—	—	—	Big disagreement	Mon 1:20 AM
NE at KC	53%	57%	—	—	—	56%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Tue 1:15 AM

The spots

Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.

Tight agreement 5 games

Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.

BUF over CHI

Elo 63% · Mkt 60% · Blend 63%

CHI at BUF · Sun 1 AM

CIN over CAR

Elo 55% · Mkt 57% · Blend 59%

CIN at CAR · Sun 6 PM

TB over NO

Elo 58% · Mkt 60% · Blend 62%

NO at TB · Sun 6 PM

WSH over ATL

Elo 63% · Mkt 60% · Blend 63%

ATL at WSH · Sun 6 PM

LAR over DAL

Elo 64% · Mkt 67% · Blend 68%

DAL at LAR · Sun 9 PM

Big disagreement 4 games

Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time.

LAC over SF

DEN over LV

MIN over DET

DET at MIN · Mon 1 AM

Coin flips 1 game

Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.