Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 15, 2026 · Monday, Dec 21, 1:20 AM · dome
Detroit Lions1–1 · Elo 1519 · Jared Goff
Minnesota Vikings
1–0 · Elo 1555 · Carson Wentz (+43) · off a bye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | DET | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 71% | 71% | 29% | MIN 1555 vs DET 1519, implied spread MIN −6.1 |
| Closing spread | DET 54% | 46% | 54% | MIN +1.5 |
| The blend | MIN 52% | 52% | 48% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Minnesota Vikings over the Lions: Elo 71%, market 46%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo; MIN off a bye.
Details
- Rest: MIN 10 days, DET 7 days. MIN off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: MIN +43 (Carson Wentz), DET 0 (Jared Goff). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.