New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 15, 2026 · Tuesday, Dec 22, 1:15 AM · outdoors
New England Patriots0–1 · Elo 1564 · Drake Maye · off a bye
Kansas City Chiefs
1–0 · Elo 1518 · Patrick Mahomes (+46) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | KC | NE | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 53% | 53% | 47% | KC 1518 vs NE 1564, implied spread KC −0.9 |
| Closing spread | KC 57% | 57% | 43% | KC -2.5 |
| The blend | KC 56% | 56% | 44% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Patriots: Elo 53%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Mahomes is worth 46 Elo; NE off a bye.
Details
- Rest: KC 8 days, NE 11 days. NE off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: KC +46 (Patrick Mahomes), NE +1 (Drake Maye). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Tuesday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.