Los Angeles Chargers at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 27, 6:00 PM · outdoors
Los Angeles Chargers
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | LAC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 58% | 58% | 42% | MIA 1440 vs LAC 1481, implied spread MIA −2.2 |
| Closing spread | LAC 70% | 30% | 70% | MIA +7 |
| The blend | LAC 63% | 37% | 63% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Chargers over the Dolphins: Elo 42%, market 70%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Herbert is worth 18 Elo; LAC off a bye.
Details
- Rest: MIA 7 days, LAC 10 days. LAC off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: MIA +90 (Malik Willis), LAC +18 (Justin Herbert). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.