Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Game data updated just now · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Sunday, Dec 27, 12:00 AM ET · closed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers3–5 · Elo 1523 · Baker Mayfield
Atlanta Falcons
3–5 · Elo 1457 · Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo) · Home
Make your pick
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TBATL
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | TB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | ATL 51% | 51% | 49% | ATL 1457 vs TB 1523, implied spread ATL −0.4 |
| The blend | ATL 51% | 51% | 49% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
No market line yet.
Details
- Rest: ATL 7 days, TB 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo). TB: Baker Mayfield (0 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | Emeka Egbuka | WR | Out | Foot · out |
| TB | Yaya Diaby | LB | Out | Knee - MCL · Head coach Todd Bowles said that Diaby (knee) has been diagnosed with an MCL sprain and won't be available for Sunday's game against the Bears, Scott Smith of the Buccaneers' official site reports. |
| ATL | Anterio Thompson | DT | Out | Undisclosed · Thompson posted on social media this week that he was diagnosed with a genetic mutation on his spinal cord in early May and indicated that he was told he will "never play football again," Josh Kendall of The Athletic reports. |
| ATL | Billy Bowman Jr. | CB | Out | Hamstring · out |
| ATL | Brian Robinson Jr. | RB | Out | Hamstring · out |
| ATL | Divine Deablo | LB | Out | Forearm · out |
| ATL | Samson Ebukam | DE | Out | Hamstring · Ebukam (hamstring) has been ruled out for Atlanta's Week 9 matchup versus the Bengals, William McFadden of the team's official site reports. |
| ATL | Zachariah Branch | WR | Out | Hamstring · Coach Kevin Stefanski noted Monday that Branch (hamstring) won't play Sunday against the Bengals, William McFadden of the Falcons' official site reports. |
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.