Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 27, 5:00 AM · closed
Tampa Bay Buccaneers0–1 · Elo 1466 · Baker Mayfield
Atlanta Falcons
0–1 · Elo 1465 · Cooper Rush (-26) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | TB | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | ATL 53% | 53% | 47% | ATL 1465 vs TB 1466, implied spread ATL −0.8 |
| Closing spread | TB 54% | 46% | 54% | ATL +1.5 |
| The blend | TB 53% | 47% | 53% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers over the Falcons: Elo 47%, market 54%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Rush is costing 26 Elo.
Details
- Rest: ATL 7 days, TB 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: ATL -26 (Cooper Rush), TB 0 (Baker Mayfield). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.