Washington Commanders at Minnesota Vikings
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 16, 2026 · Sunday, Dec 27, 5:00 AM · dome
Washington Commanders0–1 · Elo 1467 · Jayden Daniels (+15)
Minnesota Vikings
1–0 · Elo 1555 · Carson Wentz (+43) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | WSH | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 72% | 72% | 28% | MIN 1555 vs WSH 1467, implied spread MIN −6.6 |
| Closing spread | MIN 57% | 57% | 43% | MIN -2.5 |
| The blend | MIN 61% | 61% | 39% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Minnesota Vikings over the Commanders: Elo 72%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Wentz is worth 43 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIN 7 days, WSH 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: MIN +43 (Carson Wentz), WSH +15 (Jayden Daniels). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.