Denver Broncos at New England Patriots
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 17, 2026 · Sunday, Jan 3, 5:00 AM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NE | DEN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 59% | 59% | 41% | NE 1564 vs DEN 1547, implied spread NE −2.7 |
| Closing spread | NE 57% | 57% | 43% | NE -2.5 |
| The blend | NE 60% | 60% | 40% |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
New England Patriots over the Broncos: Elo 59%, market 57%. Tight agreement: go above both.
Details
- Rest: NE 7 days, DEN 9 days.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.