Predictions · Week 17

The model columns show each model's probability for the home team. Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Wild Card Divisional Conf. Champ.Super Bowl

Our lock and bold call of the week, and our pick on every game, are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.

Locks went 84% over 24 seasons; this season's record is on the leaderboard.

Game	Elo	Spread	Books	Kalshi	Polymarket	Blend	System	Crowd	Sharp crowd	Imp.	Spot	Result
BAL at CIN	50%	57%	—	—	—	55%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Fri 1:15 AM
DEN at NE	59%	57%	—	—	—	60%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	Sun 5:00 AM
WSH at JAX	69%	60%	—	—	—	62%	—	—	—	—	Clear favorite, mild disagreement	Sun 5:00 AM
LAR at TB	46%	37%	—	—	—	39%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Sun 5:00 AM
KC at LAC	48%	54%	—	—	—	53%	—	—	—	—	Coin flips	Sun 5:00 AM
SEA at CAR	33%	34%	—	—	—	32%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	Sun 6:00 PM
NYG at DAL	56%	63%	—	—	—	61%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Sun 6:00 PM
PIT at TEN	37%	46%	—	—	—	43%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Sun 6:00 PM
BUF at MIA	46%	29%	—	—	—	33%	—	—	—	—	Big disagreement	Sun 6:00 PM
MIN at NYJ	38%	40%	—	—	—	37%	—	—	—	—	Tight agreement	Sun 6:00 PM
NO at ATL	54%	54%	—	—	—	54%	—	—	—	—	Coin flips	Sun 6:00 PM
IND at CLE	56%	43%	—	—	—	46%	—	—	—	—	Big disagreement	Sun 6:00 PM
LV at ARI	51%	46%	—	—	—	47%	—	—	—	—	Coin flips	Sun 9:05 PM
DET at CHI	62%	54%	—	—	—	56%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Sun 9:25 PM
PHI at SF	57%	54%	—	—	—	55%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Mon 1:20 AM
HOU at GB	49%	57%	—	—	—	55%	—	—	—	—	Everything else	Tue 1:15 AM

The spots

Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.

Tight agreement 3 games

Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points. Over 24 seasons (2,312 games) favorites here won 69.2% against a 67.7% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%.

NE over DEN

Elo 59% · Mkt 57% · Blend 60%

DEN at NE · Sun 5 AM

SEA over CAR

Elo 67% · Mkt 66% · Blend 68%

SEA at CAR · Sun 6 PM

MIN over NYJ

Elo 62% · Mkt 60% · Blend 63%

MIN at NYJ · Sun 6 PM

Big disagreement 2 games

Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time.

BUF over MIA

Elo 54% · Mkt 71%

BUF at MIA · Sun 6 PM

IND over CLE

Elo 44% · Mkt 57%

IND at CLE · Sun 6 PM

Coin flips 3 games

Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game.

LAC over KC

ATL over NO

Clear favorite, mild disagreement 1 game

The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way).