Predictions · Week 17
The model columns show each model's probability for the home team; our pick is The System’s team and its win probability (shown on the featured game and once a game kicks off; sign up for all of them). Games are sorted into the spots our replays found an edge in, with the record behind each. Once a game ends, the models are scored the way players are, and the week and season tallies show who's forecasting best. Imp. is importance: how much the league's playoff picture swings on the game, from simulated seasons (hover for the game's quality).
| Game | Our pick | Elo | Spread | Books | Kalshi | Polymarket | Blend | System | Crowd | Sharp crowd | Imp. | Spot | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL at CIN | CIN 00% | 70% | — | — | — | — | 70% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Thu 8:15 PM ET |
| KC at LAC | KC 00% | 32% | — | — | — | — | 32% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| LAR at TB | LAR 00% | 50% | — | — | — | — | 50% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| DEN at NE | NE 00% | 54% | — | — | — | — | 54% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| WSH at JAX | JAX 00% | 76% | — | — | — | — | 76% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 12:00 AM ET |
| NYG at DAL | DAL 00% | 63% | — | — | — | — | 63% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| PIT at TEN | PIT 00% | 26% | — | — | — | — | 26% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| BUF at MIA | BUF 00% | 32% | — | — | — | — | 32% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| MIN at NYJ | MIN 00% | 21% | — | — | — | — | 21% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| SEA at CAR | SEA 00% | 31% | — | — | — | — | 31% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| IND at CLE | CLE 00% | 64% | — | — | — | — | 64% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| NO at ATL | ATL 00% | 64% | — | — | — | — | 64% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 1:00 PM ET |
| LV at ARI | LV 00% | 38% | — | — | — | — | 38% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 4:05 PM ET |
| DET at CHI | CHI 00% | 62% | — | — | — | — | 62% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 4:25 PM ET |
| PHI at SF | SF 00% | 82% | — | — | — | — | 82% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Sun 8:20 PM ET |
| HOU at GB | GB 00% | 62% | — | — | — | — | 62% | — | — | — | — | Everything else | Mon 8:15 PM ET |
The spots
Each game sorted into the spot the replays found an edge in. Rings are Elo, market and spread; the favorite's logo is in the middle. Tiles turn green or red as games finish.
Season scoreboard
The models scored as players over every decided game this season, on their pre-kickoff numbers.
| # | Model | Games | Points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | The blend | 119 | +344.5 |
| 2 | Maybe (Kalm) | 119 | +340.5 |
| 3 | Bold (baba) | 119 | +337.5 |
| 4 | The System | 119 | +327.1 |
| 5 | Cautious (baba) | 119 | +321.8 |
| 6 | Elo (the model) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 7 | Pure Elo (baba) | 119 | +307.7 |
| 8 | Presser | 101 | +297.0 |
| 9 | Closing spread | 119 | +295.8 |
| 10 | Pure market (baba) | 119 | +294.7 |
| 11 | Strong (baba) | 119 | +290.1 |
| 12 | QB1 | 101 | +269.0 |
| 13 | The bot crowd | 101 | +267.9 |
| 14 | Scout | 101 | +263.6 |
| 15 | Claudious | 101 | +261.8 |
| 16 | Fader | 101 | +253.0 |
| 17 | Exchange | 101 | +243.9 |
| 18 | Marketeer | 101 | +242.9 |
| 19 | Homer | 101 | +237.2 |
| 20 | The sharp crowd | 46 | +233.3 |
| 21 | The crowd | 46 | +230.4 |
| 22 | Polymarket | 102 | +220.6 |
| 23 | Kalshi | 102 | +218.8 |
| 24 | Sportsbooks | 102 | +211.2 |
| 25 | Contrarian | 101 | +207.7 |