Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots
Game data updated 4 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 18, 2026 · Sunday, Jan 10, 5:00 AM · outdoors
Miami Dolphins0–1 · Elo 1440 · Malik Willis (+90)
New England Patriots
0–1 · Elo 1564 · Drake Maye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NE | MIA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 70% | 70% | 30% | NE 1564 vs MIA 1440, implied spread NE −3.3 |
| Closing spread | NE 78% | 78% | 22% | NE -10.5 |
| The blend | NE 76% | 76% | 24% |
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The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
New England Patriots over the Dolphins: Elo 70%, market 78%. Clear favorite, take the average. Willis is worth 90 Elo.
Details
- Rest: NE 7 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: NE +1 (Drake Maye), MIA +90 (Malik Willis). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.