Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Final, recorded Sun 7:12 PM ET · markets priced Sun 3:44 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · SoFi Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:05 PM ET · dome
Las Vegas Raiders4–4 · Elo 1414 · Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo)
26–14
Los Angeles Chargers
0–7 · Elo 1392 · Justin Herbert (+18 Elo) · Home
Final: LV 26, LAC 14. Elo moved LAC 1481 → 1451 and LV 1420 → 1450.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | LV | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LAC 58% | 58% | 42% | -8.6 | LAC 1481 vs LV 1420, implied spread LAC −2.3 |
| Closing spread | LAC 69% | 69% | 31% | -22.6 | LAC -6.5 |
| Sportsbooks | LAC 72% | 72% | 28% | -26.8 | |
| Kalshi | LAC 74% | 74% | 27% | -29.8 | |
| Polymarket | LAC 74% | 74% | 27% | -29.8 | |
| The blend | LAC 69% | 69% | 31% | -22.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Chargers over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 73%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
Details
- Importance 53 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 17.
- Rest: LAC 7 days, LV 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. LAC: Justin Herbert (+18 Elo). LV: Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread LAC -6.5, total 43.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $355k traded, $319k open · Polymarket: $189k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Raiders 26, Chargers 14: the upset. Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers, Week 2. The Raiders won 26 to 14 as a 73% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) O.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (N.Dean). FUMBLES (N.Dean), RECOVER. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Raiders at 27%, Elo at 42%, The System at 31%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-8.6).
- Elo: Raiders 42%, -8.6
- The market: Raiders 27%, -28.3
- The System: Raiders 31%, -22.6
- The bot crowd: Raiders 31%, -22.6
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) O.Hampton up the middle to LV 46 for 2 yards (N.Dean). FUMBLES (N.Dean), RECOVERED by LV-J.Chinn at LV 41. J.Chinn to LAC 16 for 43 yards (J.Herbert). in the fourth quarter at 3:52, which moved the home side's chances from 45% to 16%.
- Largest lead: Raiders by 12. Lead changes: 2.
- Raiders's live win probability ranged from 22% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 3:53: Cody White 13 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick) (LV 17, LAC 14)
- Q4 2:59: Cody White 11 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Matt Gay Kick) (LV 24, LAC 14)
- Q4 1:41: Justin Herbert Incomplete Pass, Intended For Derius Davis (LV 26, LAC 14)
The box score
The Chargers outgained the Raiders (310 to 305 yards) and lost on turnovers (3 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: LV 305, LAC 310
- Yards per play: LV 5.1, LAC 5.0
- Third downs: LV 4-14, LAC 5-14
- Turnovers: LV 1, LAC 3
- Penalties: LV 6-42, LAC 8-45
- Possession: LV 27:43, LAC 32:17
- Red zone: LV 2-3, LAC 2-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Chargers -31 to 1451, Raiders +31 to 1450. The quarterback adjustment going in was LAC +18, LV +70.
- Kirk Cousins (LV): 19/29, 253 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 113.1
- Justin Herbert (LAC): 15/27, 192 yds, 1 TD, 2 INT, QBR 59.5
- Rushing: Omarion Hampton (LAC), 23 CAR, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Tre' Harris (LAC), 1 REC, 53 YDS
- Rushing: Ashton Jeanty (LV), 21 CAR, 48 YDS
- Receiving: Tre Tucker (LV), 5 REC, 119 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -36.6 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -22.5 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Contrarian, Chargers 58%, -8.6.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 12:28 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward LAC by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (LAC) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% | 74% | +1 | 1 |
| Sportsbooks | 72% | 72% | — | 7 |
| Polymarket | 73% | 74% | +1 | 1 |
Consensus over time