Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers
Game data updated 25 min ago · markets priced 25 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 8:05 PM · dome
Las Vegas Raiders
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | LV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LAC 58% | 58% | 42% | LAC 1481 vs LV 1420, implied spread LAC −2.3 |
| Closing spread | LAC 69% | 69% | 31% | LAC -6.5 |
| Sportsbooks | LAC 72% | 72% | 28% | |
| Kalshi | LAC 73% | 73% | 28% | |
| Polymarket | LAC 73% | 73% | 28% | |
| The blend | LAC 69% | 69% | 31% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Chargers over the Raiders: Elo 58%, market 72%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
Details
- Importance 53 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 17.
- Rest: LAC 7 days, LV 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: LAC +18 (Justin Herbert), LV +70 (Kirk Cousins). How that works.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (LAC) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73% | 73% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 73% | 73% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 72% | 72% | — | 0 |