Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
← Back to Week 2 picks · Back to Week 2 predictions
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans
Final, recorded Sun 4:07 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:53 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Nissan Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 3 mph, 96°F (heat hurts favorites)
Philadelphia Eagles2–6 · Elo 1401 · Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo)
24–20
Tennessee Titans
1–7 · Elo 1326 · Cam Ward (+19 Elo) · Home
Final: PHI 24, TEN 20. Elo moved TEN 1364 → 1354 and PHI 1539 → 1549.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TEN | PHI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PHI 67% | 33% | 67% | +14.1 | TEN 1364 vs PHI 1539, implied spread TEN +5.0 |
| Closing spread | PHI 70% | 30% | 70% | +16.0 | TEN +7 |
| Sportsbooks | PHI 75% | 25% | 75% | +18.8 | |
| Kalshi | PHI 75% | 26% | 75% | +18.2 | |
| Polymarket | PHI 75% | 26% | 75% | +18.2 | |
| The blend | PHI 73% | 27% | 73% | +17.7 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Philadelphia Eagles over the Titans: Elo 67%, market 75%. Clear favorite, take the average. Ward is worth 19 Elo; Hurts is worth 17 Elo; wind 3 mph, 96°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 39 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 15.
- Rest: TEN 7 days, PHI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. TEN: Cam Ward (+19 Elo). PHI: Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 3 mph, 96°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread TEN +7, total 39.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.1M traded, $1.1M open · Polymarket: $1.2M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Eagles 24, Titans 20: back and forth. Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans, Week 2. The Eagles won 24 to 20; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short middle to D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Elliott extra po. Attendance 68,567. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Eagles at 75%, Elo at 67%, The System at 70%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+18.8).
- Elo: Eagles 67%, +14.1
- The market: Eagles 75%, +18.8
- The System: Eagles 70%, +16.0
- The bot crowd: Eagles 72%, +17.2
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short middle to D.Cooper for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Elliott extra point is GOOD, Center-R.Underwood, Holder-B.Mann. in the fourth quarter at 0:09, which moved the home side's chances from 40% to 0%.
- Largest lead: Titans by 7. Lead changes: 3.
- Eagles's live win probability ranged from 22% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 0:57: Cam Ward 1 Yd Rush (Joey Slye Kick) (PHI 17, TEN 17)
- Q4 1:56: Joey Slye 33 Yd Field Goal (PHI 17, TEN 20)
- Q4 0:09: Darius Cooper 3 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick) (PHI 24, TEN 20)
The box score
The Eagles won the yards, 341 to 291.
- Total yards: PHI 341, TEN 291
- Yards per play: PHI 4.7, TEN 5.7
- Third downs: PHI 11-18, TEN 6-13
- Turnovers: PHI 2, TEN 0
- Penalties: PHI 4-35, TEN 7-45
- Possession: PHI 36:25, TEN 23:35
- Red zone: PHI 3-4, TEN 2-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Titans -10 to 1354, Eagles +10 to 1549. The quarterback adjustment going in was TEN +19, PHI +17.
- Jalen Hurts (PHI): 26/37, 264 yds, 2 TD, 2 INT, QBR 82.9
- Cam Ward (TEN): 13/20, 183 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 58.9
- Rushing: Tony Pollard (TEN), 14 CAR, 64 YDS
- Receiving: Elic Ayomanor (TEN), 2 REC, 69 YDS
- Rushing: Tank Bigsby (PHI), 13 CAR, 33 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: DeVonta Smith (PHI), 10 REC, 117 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +21.4 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +17.1 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, Eagles 90%, +24.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 12:53 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward TEN by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (TEN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 26% | 25% | -1 | 6 |
| Kalshi | 25% | 26% | +1 | 1 |
| Polymarket | 25% | 26% | +1 | 1 |
Consensus over time