Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Game data updated 1 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Los Angeles Chargers0–1 · Elo 1481 · Justin Herbert (+18)
Buffalo Bills
2–0 · Elo 1612 · Josh Allen · off a bye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BUF | LAC | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 73% | 73% | 27% | BUF 1612 vs LAC 1481, implied spread BUF −7.1 |
| Closing spread | BUF 63% | 63% | 37% | BUF -4.5 |
| The blend | BUF 66% | 66% | 34% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Buffalo Bills over the Chargers: Elo 73%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; BUF off a bye.
Details
- Rest: BUF 10 days, LAC 7 days. BUF off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: BUF -9 (Josh Allen), LAC +18 (Justin Herbert). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.