Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills
Final, recorded Sun 4:15 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:40 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Highmark Stadium · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 14 mph, 69°F
Los Angeles Chargers0–7 · Elo 1392 · Justin Herbert (+18 Elo)
16–24
Buffalo Bills
6–1 · Elo 1646 · Josh Allen · off a bye · Home
Final: LAC 16, BUF 24. Elo moved BUF 1612 → 1621 and LAC 1451 → 1441.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BUF | LAC | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 77% | 77% | 23% | +19.7 | BUF 1612 vs LAC 1451, implied spread BUF −8.3 |
| Closing spread | BUF 70% | 70% | 30% | +16.0 | BUF -7 |
| Sportsbooks | BUF 74% | 74% | 26% | +18.2 | |
| Kalshi | BUF 76% | 76% | 25% | +19.2 | |
| Polymarket | BUF 76% | 76% | 25% | +19.2 | |
| The blend | BUF 78% | 78% | 22% | +20.2 | |
| The crowd (4) | BUF 79% | 79% | 21% | +20.6 | |
| The sharp crowd | BUF 78% | 78% | 22% | +20.2 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Buffalo Bills over the Chargers: Elo 77%, market 75%. Tight agreement: go above both. Herbert is worth 18 Elo; BUF off a bye.
Details
- Importance 40 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 42.
- Rest: BUF 10 days, LAC 7 days. BUF off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. BUF: Josh Allen (-9 Elo). LAC: Justin Herbert (+18 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 14 mph, 69°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread BUF -7, total 50. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $958k traded, $893k open · Polymarket: $343k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Bills 24, Chargers 16. Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills, Week 3. The Bills won 24 to 16; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by C.Gard. Attendance 60,361. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Bills at 75%, Elo at 77%, The System at 78%. Best forecaster on this game: The crowd (+20.6).
- Elo: Bills 77%, +19.7
- The market: Bills 75%, +18.8
- The System: Bills 78%, +20.2
- The crowd: Bills 79%, +20.6
- The bot crowd: Bills 78%, +20.2
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Herbert pass deep middle intended for M.Valdes-Scantling INTERCEPTED by C.Gardner-Johnson at BUF 1. C.Gardner-Johnson to BUF 42 for 41 yards (J.Alt). in the fourth quarter at 13:38, which moved the home side's chances from 39% to 58%.
- Largest lead: Bills by 11. Lead changes: 1.
- Bills's live win probability ranged from 37% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 7:35: Josh Allen 1 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick) (LAC 13, BUF 17)
- Q4 3:13: James Cook III 3 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick) (LAC 13, BUF 24)
- Q4 1:56: Cameron Dicker 33 Yd Field Goal (LAC 16, BUF 24)
The box score
The Bills won the yards, 350 to 348.
- Total yards: LAC 348, BUF 350
- Yards per play: LAC 5.4, BUF 5.6
- Third downs: LAC 6-15, BUF 6-12
- Turnovers: LAC 1, BUF 5
- Penalties: LAC 7-50, BUF 10-88
- Possession: LAC 31:22, BUF 28:38
- Red zone: LAC 1-4, BUF 3-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Bills +9 to 1621, Chargers -9 to 1441. The quarterback adjustment going in was BUF -9, LAC +18.
- Justin Herbert (LAC): 20/34, 226 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 76.3
- Josh Allen (BUF): 16/26, 204 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, QBR 54
- Rushing: James Cook III (BUF), 24 CAR, 154 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: DJ Moore (BUF), 6 REC, 67 YDS
- Rushing: Omarion Hampton (LAC), 15 CAR, 56 YDS
- Receiving: Tre' Harris (LAC), 6 REC, 76 YDS
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +20.1 and 4 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +19.9 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, Bills 90%, +24.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 8:24 AM ET. The consensus has moved toward BUF by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (BUF) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 71% | 76% | +5 | 33 |
| Polymarket | 71% | 76% | +5 | 29 |
| Sportsbooks | 74% | 74% | — | 16 |
Consensus over time