Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Tennessee Titans at New York Giants
Final, recorded Sun 4:04 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:40 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Sunday, Sep 27, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 16 mph (matters), 61°F
Tennessee Titans1–7 · Elo 1326 · Cam Ward (+19 Elo)
7–12
New York Giants
4–2–1 · Elo 1504 · Jameis Winston (−71 Elo) · Home
Final: TEN 7, NYG 12. Elo moved NYG 1457 → 1471 and TEN 1354 → 1340.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYG | TEN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NYG 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | NYG 1457 vs TEN 1354, implied spread NYG −2.4 |
| Closing spread | NYG 57% | 57% | 43% | +6.5 | NYG -2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | NYG 55% | 55% | 45% | +4.8 | |
| Kalshi | NYG 56% | 56% | 44% | +5.6 | |
| Polymarket | NYG 56% | 56% | 44% | +5.6 | |
| The blend | NYG 58% | 58% | 42% | +7.4 | |
| The crowd (4) | NYG 61% | 61% | 39% | +9.8 | |
| The sharp crowd | NYG 61% | 61% | 39% | +9.8 |
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The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
New York Giants over the Titans: Elo 59%, market 56%. Tight agreement: go above both. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Ward is worth 19 Elo; wind 16 mph (matters), 61°F.
Details
- Importance 29 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 1.
- Rest: NYG 6 days, TEN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. NYG: Jameis Winston (-71 Elo). TEN: Cam Ward (+19 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 16 mph (matters), 61°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread NYG -2.5, total 37.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $367k traded, $349k open · Polymarket: $969k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Giants 12, Titans 7. Tennessee Titans at New York Giants, Week 3. The Giants won 12 to 7; the game turned on (Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left intended for E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by J.Holland at NYG -. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Giants at 56%, Elo at 59%, The System at 57%. Best forecaster on this game: The crowd (+9.8).
- Elo: Giants 59%, +8.2
- The market: Giants 56%, +5.6
- The System: Giants 57%, +6.5
- The crowd: Giants 61%, +9.8
- The bot crowd: Giants 57%, +6.5
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) C.Ward pass short left intended for E.Ayomanor INTERCEPTED by J.Holland at NYG -4. Touchback.PENALTY on NYG-A.Carter, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 10 yards, enforced between downs. in the fourth quarter at 0:24, which moved the home side's chances from 32% to 100%.
- Largest lead: Giants by 12. Lead changes: 0.
- Giants's live win probability ranged from 32% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q2 0:00: Dominic Zvada 39 Yd Field Goal (TEN 0, NYG 9)
- Q3 6:56: Dominic Zvada 30 Yd Field Goal (TEN 0, NYG 12)
- Q4 5:35: Wan'Dale Robinson 4 Yd pass from Cam Ward (Joey Slye Kick) (TEN 7, NYG 12)
The box score
The Titans outgained the Giants (262 to 237 yards) and lost on turnovers (2 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: TEN 262, NYG 237
- Yards per play: TEN 4.6, NYG 4.1
- Third downs: TEN 5-13, NYG 4-13
- Turnovers: TEN 2, NYG 0
- Penalties: TEN 7-63, NYG 10-88
- Possession: TEN 25:34, NYG 34:26
- Red zone: TEN 1-3, NYG 0-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Giants +14 to 1471, Titans -14 to 1340. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYG -71, TEN +19.
- Cam Ward (TEN): 23/36, 181 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 74
- Jameis Winston (NYG): 14/22, 118 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 77.5
- Rushing: Cam Skattebo (NYG), 20 CAR, 60 YDS
- Receiving: Cam Skattebo (NYG), 3 REC, 40 YDS
- Rushing: Tony Pollard (TEN), 17 CAR, 74 YDS
- Receiving: Carnell Tate (TEN), 6 REC, 58 YDS
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +9.5 and 4 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +6.3 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, Giants 73%, +17.7.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:40 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from NYG by 14 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NYG) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 71% | 56% | -15 | 46 |
| Kalshi | 71% | 56% | -15 | 55 |
| Sportsbooks | 69% | 55% | -15 | 18 |
Consensus over time