Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
← Back to Week 4 picks · Back to Week 4 predictions
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints
Final, recorded Mon 11:35 PM ET · markets priced Mon 7:55 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Caesars Superdome · Monday, Oct 5, 8:15 PM ET · dome
Atlanta Falcons3–5 · Elo 1457 · Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo) · off a bye
45–24
New Orleans Saints
2–5 · Elo 1451 · Tyler Shough (−16 Elo) · Home
Final: ATL 45, NO 24. Elo moved NO 1481 → 1451 and ATL 1463 → 1493.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NO | ATL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | ATL 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | NO 1481 vs ATL 1463, implied spread NO +0.1 |
| Closing spread | NO 54% | 54% | 46% | -4.2 | NO -1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | NO 52% | 52% | 48% | -2.0 | |
| Kalshi | NO 53% | 53% | 48% | -3.1 | |
| Polymarket | NO 52% | 52% | 49% | -2.0 | |
| The blend | NO 51% | 51% | 49% | -1.0 | |
| The crowd (3) | NO 57% | 57% | 43% | -7.5 | |
| The sharp crowd | NO 57% | 57% | 43% | -7.5 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
New Orleans Saints over the Falcons: Elo 50%, market 52%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Penix is worth 28 Elo; ATL off a bye.
Details
- Importance 49 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 24.
- Rest: NO 8 days, ATL 11 days. ATL off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. NO: Tyler Shough (-16 Elo). ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread NO -1.5, total 47.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $3.4M traded, $3.3M open · Polymarket: $2.0M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Falcons 45, Saints 24. Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, Week 4. The Falcons won 45 to 24; the game turned on Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullo. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Falcons at 48%, Elo at 50%, The System at 49%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+0.0).
- Elo: Falcons 50%, +0.0
- The market: Falcons 48%, -2.0
- The System: Falcons 49%, -1.0
- The crowd: Falcons 43%, -7.5
- The bot crowd: Falcons 48%, -2.0
How it happened
The swing: Bi.Robinson left end for 59 yards, TOUCHDOWN. N.Folk extra point is GOOD, Center-L.McCullough, Holder-J.Bailey. in the first quarter at 13:34, which moved the home side's chances from 57% to 46%.
- Largest lead: Falcons by 28. Lead changes: 0.
- Falcons's live win probability ranged from 38% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 9:50: Jahan Dotson 31 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Nick Folk Kick) (ATL 38, NO 17)
- Q4 6:52: Brian Robinson Jr. 11 Yd Rush (Nick Folk Kick) (ATL 45, NO 17)
- Q4 1:13: Devaughn Vele 3 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Daniel Carlson Kick) (ATL 45, NO 24)
The box score
The Falcons won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: ATL 420, NO 320
- Yards per play: ATL 7.5, NO 4.6
- Third downs: ATL 4-8, NO 6-15
- Turnovers: ATL 0, NO 1
- Penalties: ATL 8-70, NO 8-49
- Possession: ATL 30:45, NO 29:15
- Red zone: ATL 4-5, NO 3-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Saints -31 to 1451, Falcons +31 to 1493. The quarterback adjustment going in was NO -16, ATL +28.
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 15/20, 223 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 127.7
- Tyler Shough (NO): 30/48, 286 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 85.9
- Rushing: Alvin Kamara (NO), 7 CAR, 23 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Chris Olave (NO), 8 REC, 116 YDS
- Rushing: Bijan Robinson (ATL), 19 CAR, 145 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Drake London (ATL), 5 REC, 96 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -7.9 and 0 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -2.4 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Saints 50%, +0.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sun, Sep 27, 8 PM ET; last change Mon 7:30 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from NO by 6 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NO) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 58% | 52% | -5 | 21 |
| Polymarket | 59% | 52% | -7 | 22 |
| Kalshi | 57% | 53% | -5 | 27 |
Consensus over time