Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles
Final, recorded Sun 4:18 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:54 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Lincoln Financial Field · Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 6 mph, 63°F
Los Angeles Rams4–4 · Elo 1575 · Matthew Stafford
24–20
Philadelphia Eagles
2–6 · Elo 1401 · Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo) · Home
Final: LAR 24, PHI 20. Elo moved PHI 1510 → 1492 and LAR 1549 → 1566.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | PHI | LAR | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PHI 54% | 54% | 46% | -4.2 | PHI 1510 vs LAR 1549, implied spread PHI −1.1 |
| Closing spread | LAR 60% | 40% | 60% | +9.0 | PHI +3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | LAR 63% | 37% | 63% | +11.3 | |
| Kalshi | LAR 65% | 36% | 65% | +12.0 | |
| Polymarket | LAR 63% | 38% | 63% | +10.6 | |
| The blend | LAR 59% | 41% | 59% | +8.2 | |
| The crowd (3) | LAR 53% | 47% | 53% | +2.9 | |
| The sharp crowd | LAR 53% | 47% | 53% | +2.9 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Rams over the Eagles: Elo 46%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Hurts is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 47 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 43.
- Rest: PHI 6 days, LAR 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. PHI: Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo). LAR: Matthew Stafford (0 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 6 mph, 63°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread PHI +3.5, total 42.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.5M traded, $1.4M open · Polymarket: $985k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Rams 24, Eagles 20. Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles, Week 4. The Rams won 24 to 20; the game turned on K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona,. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Rams at 63%, Elo at 46%, The System at 59%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+11.3).
- Elo: Rams 46%, -4.2
- The market: Rams 63%, +11.3
- The System: Rams 59%, +8.2
- The crowd: Rams 53%, +2.9
- The bot crowd: Rams 58%, +7.4
How it happened
The swing: K.Williams left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans. in the fourth quarter at 1:10, which moved the home side's chances from 33% to 6%.
- Largest lead: Eagles by 10. Lead changes: 1.
- Rams's live win probability ranged from 3% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q2 0:03: Darius Cooper 10 Yd pass from Jalen Hurts (Jake Elliott Kick) (LAR 10, PHI 20)
- Q4 3:59: Kyren Williams 1 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick) (LAR 17, PHI 20)
- Q4 1:10: Kyren Williams 7 Yd Rush (Harrison Mevis Kick) (LAR 24, PHI 20)
The box score
The Rams won the yards, 414 to 172.
- Total yards: LAR 414, PHI 172
- Yards per play: LAR 5.4, PHI 3.0
- Third downs: LAR 7-16, PHI 0-12
- Turnovers: LAR 2, PHI 0
- Penalties: LAR 8-100, PHI 10-58
- Possession: LAR 32:00, PHI 28:00
- Red zone: LAR 3-5, PHI 2-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Eagles -18 to 1492, Rams +18 to 1566. The quarterback adjustment going in was PHI +17, LAR 0.
- Matthew Stafford (LAR): 32/51, 316 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, QBR 63.8
- Jalen Hurts (PHI): 12/27, 93 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 78.2
- Rushing: Tank Bigsby (PHI), 14 CAR, 55 YDS
- Receiving: Darius Cooper (PHI), 3 REC, 33 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Kyren Williams (LAR), 16 CAR, 80 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Puka Nacua (LAR), 9 REC, 125 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +2.9 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +7.1 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Exchange, Rams 63%, +11.3.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 26, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 11:20 AM ET. The consensus has moved away from PHI by 8 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (PHI) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% | 38% | -6 | 63 |
| Kalshi | 43% | 36% | -8 | 74 |
| Sportsbooks | 44% | 37% | -7 | 20 |
Consensus over time