Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings
Final, recorded Sun 7:05 PM ET · markets priced Sun 3:50 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Sunday, Oct 4, 4:05 PM ET · dome
Miami Dolphins1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+90 Elo)
10–15
Minnesota Vikings
6–1 · Elo 1584 · Kyler Murray (+100 Elo) · Home
Final: MIA 10, MIN 15. Elo moved MIN 1585 → 1592 and MIA 1395 → 1388.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | MIA | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 81% | 81% | 19% | +21.4 | MIN 1585 vs MIA 1395, implied spread MIN −9.9 |
| Closing spread | MIN 77% | 77% | 23% | +19.7 | MIN -10 |
| Sportsbooks | MIN 82% | 82% | 18% | +21.8 | |
| Kalshi | MIN 83% | 83% | 18% | +22.1 | |
| Polymarket | MIN 83% | 83% | 18% | +22.1 | |
| The blend | MIN 84% | 84% | 16% | +22.4 | |
| The crowd (3) | MIN 79% | 79% | 21% | +20.6 | |
| The sharp crowd | MIN 79% | 79% | 21% | +20.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Minnesota Vikings over the Dolphins: Elo 81%, market 82%. Tight agreement: go above both. Murray is worth 100 Elo; Willis is worth 90 Elo.
Details
- Importance 27 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 28.
- Rest: MIN 7 days, MIA 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. MIN: Kyler Murray (+100 Elo). MIA: Malik Willis (+90 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread MIN -10, total 38.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $459k traded, $433k open · Polymarket: $483k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Vikings 15, Dolphins 10. Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings, Week 4. The Vikings won 15 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle to J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (C.Johnson; J.Bre. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Vikings at 82%, Elo at 81%, The System at 84%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+22.4).
- Elo: Vikings 81%, +21.4
- The market: Vikings 82%, +21.8
- The System: Vikings 84%, +22.4
- The crowd: Vikings 79%, +20.6
- The bot crowd: Vikings 84%, +22.4
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) K.Murray pass short middle to J.Addison to MIA 40 for 27 yards (C.Johnson; J.Brents). in the fourth quarter at 4:22, which moved the home side's chances from 87% to 94%.
- Largest lead: Vikings by 9. Lead changes: 0.
- Vikings's live win probability ranged from 78% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 6:35: Will Reichard 41 Yd Field Goal (MIA 3, MIN 12)
- Q3 0:11: Ollie Gordon II 12 Yd Rush (Riley Patterson Kick) (MIA 10, MIN 12)
- Q4 6:41: Will Reichard 29 Yd Field Goal (MIA 10, MIN 15)
The box score
The Vikings won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: MIA 198, MIN 336
- Yards per play: MIA 5.4, MIN 4.7
- Third downs: MIA 2-9, MIN 8-18
- Turnovers: MIA 1, MIN 0
- Penalties: MIA 9-55, MIN 11-85
- Possession: MIA 20:49, MIN 39:11
- Red zone: MIA 1-2, MIN 0-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Vikings +6 to 1592, Dolphins -6 to 1388. The quarterback adjustment going in was MIN +100, MIA +90.
- Malik Willis (MIA): 9/17, 85 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 67
- Kyler Murray (MIN): 27/37, 247 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT, QBR 90.7
- Rushing: Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN), 20 CAR, 94 YDS
- Receiving: T.J. Hockenson (MIN), 13 REC, 119 YDS
- Rushing: Ollie Gordon II (MIA), 9 CAR, 100 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Malik Washington (MIA), 5 REC, 67 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +20.4 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +22.4 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, Vikings 90%, +24.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 26, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 1:15 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from MIN by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (MIN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 83% | 83% | -1 | 42 |
| Polymarket | 84% | 83% | -2 | 46 |
| Sportsbooks | 83% | 82% | -1 | 21 |
Consensus over time