Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 2 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 11, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Cincinnati Bengals1–0 · Elo 1505 · Joe Burrow (+17)
Miami Dolphins
0–1 · Elo 1440 · Malik Willis (+90) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | CIN | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIA 58% | 58% | 42% | MIA 1440 vs CIN 1505, implied spread MIA −2.3 |
| Closing spread | CIN 67% | 33% | 67% | MIA +6 |
| The blend | CIN 61% | 39% | 61% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Cincinnati Bengals over the Dolphins: Elo 42%, market 67%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; Burrow is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIA 7 days, CIN 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: MIA +90 (Malik Willis), CIN +17 (Joe Burrow). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.