Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers
Final, recorded Sun 7:18 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:00 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · SoFi Stadium · Sunday, Oct 11, 4:05 PM ET · dome
Denver Broncos6–2 · Elo 1617 · Bo Nix
23–17
Los Angeles Chargers
0–7 · Elo 1392 · Justin Herbert (+18 Elo) · Home
Final: DEN 23, LAC 17. Elo moved LAC 1432 → 1417 and DEN 1562 → 1578.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAC | DEN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DEN 59% | 41% | 59% | +8.2 | LAC 1432 vs DEN 1562, implied spread LAC +2.5 |
| Closing spread | DEN 60% | 40% | 60% | +9.0 | LAC +3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | DEN 63% | 37% | 63% | +11.3 | |
| Kalshi | DEN 64% | 37% | 64% | +11.3 | |
| Polymarket | DEN 63% | 38% | 63% | +10.6 | |
| The blend | DEN 62% | 38% | 62% | +10.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Denver Broncos over the Chargers: Elo 59%, market 63%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Herbert is worth 18 Elo.
Details
- Importance 40 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 31.
- Rest: LAC 7 days, DEN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. LAC: Justin Herbert (+18 Elo). DEN: Bo Nix (-1 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread LAC +3.5, total 42. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $902k traded, $863k open · Polymarket: $65k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Broncos 23, Chargers 17. Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers, Week 5. The Broncos won 23 to 17; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (Z.Allen). FUMBLES (Z.Allen) [Z.Allen], . Attendance 69,293. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Broncos at 63%, Elo at 59%, The System at 62%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+11.3).
- Elo: Broncos 59%, +8.2
- The market: Broncos 63%, +11.3
- The System: Broncos 62%, +10.6
- The bot crowd: Broncos 61%, +9.8
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Herbert sacked at LAC 24 for -8 yards (Z.Allen). FUMBLES (Z.Allen) [Z.Allen], RECOVERED by DEN-Q.Robinson at LAC 23. in the fourth quarter at 8:06, which moved the home side's chances from 49% to 30%.
- Largest lead: Broncos by 7. Lead changes: 2.
- Broncos's live win probability ranged from 16% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 8:53: Courtland Sutton 5 Yd pass from Bo Nix (Wil Lutz Kick) (DEN 17, LAC 17)
- Q4 5:07: Wil Lutz 19 Yd Field Goal (DEN 20, LAC 17)
- Q4 1:08: Wil Lutz 36 Yd Field Goal (DEN 23, LAC 17)
The box score
The Chargers outgained the Broncos (237 to 224 yards) and lost on turnovers (3 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: DEN 224, LAC 237
- Yards per play: DEN 3.9, LAC 3.8
- Third downs: DEN 1-12, LAC 5-14
- Turnovers: DEN 1, LAC 3
- Penalties: DEN 7-40, LAC 9-93
- Possession: DEN 29:07, LAC 30:53
- Red zone: DEN 2-5, LAC 1-1
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Chargers -16 to 1417, Broncos +16 to 1578. The quarterback adjustment going in was LAC +18, DEN -1.
- Bo Nix (DEN): 16/27, 123 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 82.8
- Justin Herbert (LAC): 14/24, 121 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 68.2
- Rushing: Kimani Vidal (LAC), 8 CAR, 57 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Charlie Kolar (LAC), 3 REC, 37 YDS
- Rushing: J.K. Dobbins (DEN), 18 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Evan Engram (DEN), 4 REC, 55 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +8.6 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +10.0 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Exchange, Broncos 63%, +11.3.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 4:00 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from LAC by 9 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (LAC) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 47% | 38% | -9 | 27 |
| Kalshi | 46% | 37% | -9 | 32 |
| Sportsbooks | 46% | 37% | -9 | 23 |
Consensus over time