Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals
Final, recorded Sun 7:30 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:00 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · State Farm Stadium · Sunday, Oct 11, 4:25 PM ET · closed
Detroit Lions5–2 · Elo 1569 · Jared Goff
45–21
Arizona Cardinals
3–5 · Elo 1439 · Jacoby Brissett (−40 Elo) · Home
Final: DET 45, ARI 21. Elo moved ARI 1438 → 1412 and DET 1511 → 1536.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ARI | DET | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | DET 59% | 41% | 59% | +8.2 | ARI 1438 vs DET 1511, implied spread ARI +2.6 |
| Closing spread | DET 66% | 34% | 66% | +13.4 | ARI +5.5 |
| Sportsbooks | DET 68% | 32% | 68% | +14.8 | |
| Kalshi | DET 70% | 31% | 70% | +15.4 | |
| Polymarket | DET 70% | 31% | 70% | +15.4 | |
| The blend | DET 67% | 33% | 67% | +14.1 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Detroit Lions over the Cardinals: Elo 59%, market 69%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Brissett is costing 40 Elo.
Details
- Importance 39 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 24.
- Rest: ARI 7 days, DET 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. ARI: Jacoby Brissett (-40 Elo). DET: Jared Goff (0 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread ARI +5.5, total 54.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $251k traded, $232k open · Polymarket: $19k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Lions 45, Cardinals 21. Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals, Week 5. The Lions won 45 to 21; the game turned on J.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD,. Attendance 60,968. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Lions at 69%, Elo at 59%, The System at 67%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+15.4).
- Elo: Lions 59%, +8.2
- The market: Lions 69%, +15.4
- The System: Lions 67%, +14.1
- The bot crowd: Lions 67%, +14.1
How it happened
The swing: J.Goff pass short right to S.LaPorta for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. J.Bates extra point is GOOD, Center-H.Hatten, Holder-J.Fox. in the second quarter at 9:30, which moved the home side's chances from 33% to 19%.
- Largest lead: Lions by 31. Lead changes: 1.
- Lions's live win probability ranged from 46% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 1:05: Jared Goff 1 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick) (DET 38, ARI 14)
- Q4 5:03: Jahmyr Gibbs 3 Yd Rush (Jake Bates Kick) (DET 45, ARI 14)
- Q4 2:11: Trey McBride 9 Yd pass from Jacoby Brissett (Chad Ryland Kick) (DET 45, ARI 21)
The box score
The Lions won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: DET 412, ARI 327
- Yards per play: DET 6.3, ARI 4.6
- Third downs: DET 4-13, ARI 8-18
- Turnovers: DET 0, ARI 1
- Penalties: DET 4-31, ARI 5-45
- Possession: DET 29:49, ARI 30:11
- Red zone: DET 4-4, ARI 3-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Cardinals -26 to 1412, Lions +26 to 1536. The quarterback adjustment going in was ARI -40, DET +0.
- Jared Goff (DET): 19/30, 271 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 125.8
- Jacoby Brissett (ARI): 29/47, 292 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 91.8
- Rushing: Jeremiyah Love (ARI), 12 CAR, 22 YDS
- Receiving: Kendrick Bourne (ARI), 5 REC, 70 YDS
- Rushing: Jahmyr Gibbs (DET), 25 CAR, 151 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Sam LaPorta (DET), 5 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +11.7 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +13.8 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Exchange, Lions 69%, +15.4.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Chicago Bears rose to 1639; Seattle Seahawks fell to 1608. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Lions at Dolphins, 6 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%). Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 12:15 PM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (ARI) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32% | 31% | -1 | 34 |
| Kalshi | 32% | 31% | -1 | 25 |
| Sportsbooks | 32% | 32% | — | 16 |
Consensus over time