Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
Final, recorded Sun 3:56 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:44 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Nissan Stadium · Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 9 mph, 65°F
Houston Texans2–5 · Elo 1498 · C.J. Stroud
26–3
Tennessee Titans
1–7 · Elo 1326 · Cam Ward (+19 Elo) · Home
Final: HOU 26, TEN 3. Elo moved TEN 1333 → 1310 and HOU 1489 → 1512.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | TEN | HOU | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | HOU 63% | 37% | 63% | +11.3 | TEN 1333 vs HOU 1489, implied spread TEN +3.6 |
| Closing spread | HOU 69% | 31% | 69% | +15.4 | TEN +6.5 |
| Sportsbooks | HOU 74% | 26% | 74% | +18.2 | |
| Kalshi | HOU 75% | 26% | 75% | +18.2 | |
| Polymarket | HOU 75% | 26% | 75% | +18.2 | |
| The blend | HOU 71% | 29% | 71% | +16.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Houston Texans over the Titans: Elo 63%, market 74%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Ward is worth 19 Elo.
Details
- Importance 33 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 2.
- Rest: TEN 7 days, HOU 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. TEN: Cam Ward (+19 Elo). HOU: C.J. Stroud (+1 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 9 mph, 65°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread TEN +6.5, total 38. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $739k traded, $698k open · Polymarket: $721k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Texans 26, Titans 3. Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans, Week 5. The Texans won 26 to 3; the game turned on C.Ward pass short middle intended for T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by J.Hansen (D.Hunter) [D.Hunt. Attendance 52,097. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Texans at 74%, Elo at 63%, The System at 71%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+18.2).
- Elo: Texans 63%, +11.3
- The market: Texans 74%, +18.2
- The System: Texans 71%, +16.6
- The bot crowd: Texans 71%, +16.6
How it happened
The swing: C.Ward pass short middle intended for T.Pollard INTERCEPTED by J.Hansen (D.Hunter) [D.Hunter] at HST 40. J.Hansen pushed ob at TEN 41 for 19 yards (G.Helm). in the second quarter at 12:17, which moved the home side's chances from 33% to 23%.
- Largest lead: Texans by 23. Lead changes: 1.
- Texans's live win probability ranged from 54% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q2 1:15: Ka'imi Fairbairn 53 Yd Field Goal (HOU 12, TEN 3)
- Q3 6:37: C.J. Stroud 2 Yd Rush (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) (HOU 19, TEN 3)
- Q4 14:09: Jaylin Noel 9 Yd pass from C.J. Stroud (Ka'imi Fairbairn Kick) (HOU 26, TEN 3)
The box score
The Texans won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: HOU 329, TEN 187
- Yards per play: HOU 5.2, TEN 3.2
- Third downs: HOU 6-12, TEN 4-11
- Turnovers: HOU 0, TEN 2
- Penalties: HOU 11-95, TEN 7-83
- Possession: HOU 34:39, TEN 25:21
- Red zone: HOU 2-4, TEN 0-1
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Titans -23 to 1310, Texans +23 to 1512. The quarterback adjustment going in was TEN +19, HOU +1.
- C.J. Stroud (HOU): 26/34, 261 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 107.6
- Cam Ward (TEN): 23/36, 170 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 63.4
- Rushing: Tony Pollard (TEN), 14 CAR, 52 YDS
- Receiving: Wan'Dale Robinson (TEN), 6 REC, 53 YDS
- Rushing: Woody Marks (HOU), 15 CAR, 62 YDS
- Receiving: Xavier Hutchinson (HOU), 4 REC, 65 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +16.9 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +16.5 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Marketeer, Texans 75%, +18.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:15 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward TEN by 1 point since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (TEN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 25% | 26% | +1 | 37 |
| Kalshi | 26% | 26% | -1 | 49 |
| Sportsbooks | 27% | 26% | -1 | 20 |
Consensus over time