Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 11, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Las Vegas Raiders1–0 · Elo 1420 · Kirk Cousins (+70)
New England Patriots
0–1 · Elo 1564 · Drake Maye · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NE | LV | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NE 67% | 67% | 33% | NE 1564 vs LV 1420, implied spread NE −4.9 |
| Closing spread | NE 74% | 74% | 26% | NE -8.5 |
| The blend | NE 72% | 72% | 28% |
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The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
New England Patriots over the Raiders: Elo 67%, market 74%. Clear favorite, take the average. Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
Details
- Rest: NE 7 days, LV 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: NE +1 (Drake Maye), LV +70 (Kirk Cousins). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.