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Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints
Final, recorded Sun 3:56 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:44 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 5, 2026 · Caesars Superdome · Sunday, Oct 11, 1:00 PM ET · dome
Minnesota Vikings6–1 · Elo 1584 · Kyler Murray (+100 Elo)
23–13
New Orleans Saints
2–5 · Elo 1451 · Tyler Shough (−16 Elo) · Home
Final: MIN 23, NO 13. Elo moved NO 1451 → 1441 and MIN 1592 → 1602.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NO | MIN | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 77% | 23% | 77% | +19.7 | NO 1451 vs MIN 1592, implied spread NO +8.4 |
| Closing spread | MIN 57% | 43% | 57% | +6.5 | NO +2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | MIN 56% | 44% | 56% | +5.6 | |
| Kalshi | MIN 55% | 45% | 55% | +4.8 | |
| Polymarket | MIN 55% | 45% | 55% | +4.8 | |
| The blend | MIN 61% | 39% | 61% | +9.8 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Minnesota Vikings over the Saints: Elo 77%, market 56%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Shough is costing 16 Elo; Murray is worth 100 Elo.
Details
- Importance 33 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 39.
- Rest: NO 6 days, MIN 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. NO: Tyler Shough (-16 Elo). MIN: Kyler Murray (+100 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread NO +2.5, total 41.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $514k traded, $487k open · Polymarket: $421k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Vikings 23, Saints 13. Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints, Week 5. The Vikings won 23 to 13; the game turned on (Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (M.Emerson; P.Werner). . Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Vikings at 56%, Elo at 77%, The System at 61%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+19.7).
- Elo: Vikings 77%, +19.7
- The market: Vikings 56%, +5.6
- The System: Vikings 61%, +9.8
- The bot crowd: Vikings 60%, +9.0
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) K.Murray pass short left to M.Price to NO 12 for 7 yards (M.Emerson; P.Werner). FUMBLES (M.Emerson), RECOVERED by NO-J.Sanker at NO 13. J.Sanker for 87 yards, TOUCHDOWN. D.Carlson extra point is No Good, Wide Left, Center-C.Adomitis, Holder-R.Wright. in the third quarter at 2:34, which moved the home side's chances from 18% to 50%.
- Largest lead: Vikings by 10. Lead changes: 2.
- Vikings's live win probability ranged from 39% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 2:34: Jonas Sanker 87 Yd Fumble Return (Daniel Carlson PAT Failed) (MIN 13, NO 13)
- Q4 14:06: Aaron Jones Sr. 8 Yd Rush (Will Reichard Kick) (MIN 20, NO 13)
- Q4 7:01: Will Reichard 55 Yd Field Goal (MIN 23, NO 13)
The box score
The Vikings won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: MIN 364, NO 142
- Yards per play: MIN 5.4, NO 3.3
- Third downs: MIN 9-18, NO 2-10
- Turnovers: MIN 2, NO 3
- Penalties: MIN 4-30, NO 6-41
- Possession: MIN 39:37, NO 20:23
- Red zone: MIN 2-4, NO 1-1
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Saints -10 to 1441, Vikings +10 to 1602. The quarterback adjustment going in was NO -16, MIN +100.
- Kyler Murray (MIN): 24/30, 229 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 109.6
- Tyler Shough (NO): 16/25, 96 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, QBR 38.1
- Rushing: Kendre Miller (NO), 10 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Chris Olave (NO), 4 REC, 46 YDS
- Rushing: Aaron Jones Sr. (MIN), 25 CAR, 113 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Justin Jefferson (MIN), 6 REC, 79 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +6.9 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +8.5 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Contrarian, Vikings 77%, +19.7.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 3, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:15 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from NO by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NO) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 47% | 45% | -2 | 51 |
| Polymarket | 46% | 45% | -2 | 39 |
| Sportsbooks | 45% | 44% | -1 | 19 |
Consensus over time