Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
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Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Final, recorded Sun 4:25 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:56 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · closed
Chicago Bears5–2 · Elo 1604 · Caleb Williams
31–23
Atlanta Falcons
3–5 · Elo 1457 · Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo) · Home
Final: CHI 31, ATL 23. Elo moved ATL 1470 → 1449 and CHI 1566 → 1586.
Bold call of the week. ATL · Elo gives the Atlanta Falcons 61% at home against the Chicago Bears; the market says 46%. That 15-point gap is the biggest of the week. Penix is worth +28 Elo to the Falcons; Bagent is worth -100 Elo to the Bears. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | ATL | CHI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CHI 53% | 47% | 53% | +2.9 | ATL 1470 vs CHI 1566, implied spread ATL +0.8 |
| Closing spread | CHI 54% | 46% | 54% | +3.8 | ATL +1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | CHI 52% | 48% | 52% | +2.0 | |
| Kalshi | CHI 52% | 49% | 52% | +1.0 | |
| Polymarket | CHI 52% | 49% | 52% | +1.0 | |
| The blend | CHI 52% | 48% | 52% | +2.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Coin flips
Every model has the game between 45% and 55%. Replays: these resolved 50/50, and confident picks on them cost the most points per game. Leave the slider near 50. A wrong 65% costs more than a right one earns.
Chicago Bears over the Falcons: Elo 53%, market 52%. Coin flip: stay near 50. Penix is worth 28 Elo.
Details
- Importance 47 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 39.
- Rest: ATL 7 days, CHI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. ATL: Michael Penix Jr. (+28 Elo). CHI: Caleb Williams (0 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (roof closed), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread ATL +1, total 52.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $773k traded, $668k open · Polymarket: $186k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Bears 31, Falcons 23. Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons, Week 6. The Bears won 31 to 23; the game turned on (1:52) T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-S.Daly. Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED b. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Bears at 52%, Elo at 53%, The System at 52%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+2.9).
This was the bold (Atlanta Falcons) this week: it missed.
- Elo: Bears 53%, +2.9
- The market: Bears 52%, +2.0
- The System: Bears 52%, +2.0
- The bot crowd: Bears 51%, +1.0
How it happened
The swing: (1:52) T.Taylor punts 50 yards to ATL 10, Center-S.Daly. Z.Branch MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by CHI-J.Blackwell at ATL 10. in the second quarter at 1:52, which moved the home side's chances from 20% to 11%.
- Largest lead: Bears by 24. Lead changes: 0.
- Bears's live win probability ranged from 66% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 14:56: Cairo Santos 50 Yd Field Goal (CHI 31, ATL 7)
- Q4 9:34: Kyle Pitts Sr. 10 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Michael Penix Jr. Pass to Zachariah Branch for Two-Point Conversion) (CHI 31, ATL 15)
- Q4 5:41: Kyle Pitts Sr. 5 Yd pass from Michael Penix Jr. (Michael Penix Jr. Pass to Drake London for Two-Point Conversion) (CHI 31, ATL 23)
The box score
The Bears won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: CHI 368, ATL 257
- Yards per play: CHI 5.0, ATL 5.1
- Third downs: CHI 9-17, ATL 3-12
- Turnovers: CHI 1, ATL 3
- Penalties: CHI 12-133, ATL 4-31
- Possession: CHI 40:08, ATL 19:52
- Red zone: CHI 4-5, ATL 3-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Falcons -21 to 1449, Bears +21 to 1586. The quarterback adjustment going in was ATL +28, CHI 0.
- Caleb Williams (CHI): 30/36, 305 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 111.2
- Michael Penix Jr. (ATL): 19/33, 225 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 108.8
- Rushing: Bijan Robinson (ATL), 9 CAR, 61 YDS
- Receiving: Jahan Dotson (ATL), 3 REC, 87 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Roschon Johnson (CHI), 13 CAR, 51 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Luther Burden III (CHI), 8 REC, 95 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +3.8 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +1.2 and 7 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Bears 54%, +3.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 10, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 10:38 AM ET. The consensus has moved toward ATL by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (ATL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 46% | 49% | +3 | 74 |
| Polymarket | 45% | 49% | +3 | 19 |
| Sportsbooks | 46% | 48% | +2 | 25 |
Consensus over time