Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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New Orleans Saints at New York Giants
Final, recorded Sun 4:28 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:56 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 6, 2026 · MetLife Stadium · Sunday, Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 4 mph, 56°F
New Orleans Saints2–5 · Elo 1451 · Tyler Shough (−16 Elo)
34–27
New York Giants
4–2–1 · Elo 1504 · Jameis Winston (−71 Elo) · Home
Final: NO 34, NYG 27. Elo moved NYG 1496 → 1472 and NO 1441 → 1465.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | NYG | NO | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | NYG 57% | 57% | 43% | -7.5 | NYG 1496 vs NO 1441, implied spread NYG −2.0 |
| Closing spread | NO 54% | 46% | 54% | +3.8 | NYG +1.5 |
| Sportsbooks | NO 50% | 50% | 50% | +0.0 | |
| Kalshi | NO 51% | 50% | 51% | +0.0 | |
| Polymarket | NO 51% | 50% | 51% | +0.0 | |
| The blend | NYG 51% | 51% | 49% | -1.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
New York Giants over the Saints: Elo 57%, market 50%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Winston is costing 71 Elo; Shough is costing 16 Elo.
Details
- Importance 43 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 23.
- Rest: NYG 7 days, NO 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. NYG: Jameis Winston (-71 Elo). NO: Tyler Shough (-16 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 4 mph, 56°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread NYG +0.5, total 46. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.1M traded, $1.1M open · Polymarket: $425k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Saints 34, Giants 27. New Orleans Saints at New York Giants, Week 6. The Saints won 34 to 27; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.McCarthy pass short middle to M.Nabers to NO 14 for 9 yards (J.Reid).. Attendance 82,905. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Saints at 50%, Elo at 43%, The System at 49%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+0.0).
- Elo: Saints 43%, -7.5
- The market: Saints 50%, +0.0
- The System: Saints 49%, -1.0
- The bot crowd: Saints 48%, -2.0
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.McCarthy pass short middle to M.Nabers to NO 14 for 9 yards (J.Reid). in the fourth quarter at 0:24, which moved the home side's chances from 13% to 34%.
- Largest lead: Saints by 24. Lead changes: 1.
- Saints's live win probability ranged from 21% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 7:00: Tyrone Tracy Jr. 5 Yd Rush (J.J. McCarthy Pass to Isaiah Likely for Two-Point Conversion) (NO 34, NYG 18)
- Q4 5:06: Isaiah Likely 24 Yd pass from J.J. McCarthy (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (NO 34, NYG 24)
- Q4 2:04: Dominic Zvada 41 Yd Field Goal (NO 34, NYG 27)
The box score
The Giants outgained the Saints (461 to 319 yards) and lost on turnovers (4 to 1). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: NO 319, NYG 461
- Yards per play: NO 4.7, NYG 6.4
- Third downs: NO 4-15, NYG 4-14
- Turnovers: NO 1, NYG 4
- Penalties: NO 7-52, NYG 10-73
- Possession: NO 31:02, NYG 28:58
- Red zone: NO 3-3, NYG 2-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Giants -24 to 1472, Saints +24 to 1465. The quarterback adjustment going in was NYG -71, NO -16.
- Tyler Shough (NO): 16/30, 144 yds, 3 TD, 0 INT, QBR 99.9
- J.J. McCarthy (NYG): 11/21, 243 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 90
- Rushing: J.J. McCarthy (NYG), 2 CAR, 26 YDS
- Receiving: Malik Nabers (NYG), 12 REC, 165 YDS
- Rushing: Kendre Miller (NO), 20 CAR, 70 YDS
- Receiving: Chris Olave (NO), 4 REC, 43 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +0.5 and 1 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -1.7 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Saints 51%, +1.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 10, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:56 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward NYG by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (NYG) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 48% | 50% | +2 | 31 |
| Polymarket | 48% | 50% | +2 | 16 |
| Sportsbooks | 48% | 50% | +2 | 16 |
Consensus over time