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Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders
Final, recorded Sun 7:37 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:13 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 7, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium · Sunday, Oct 25, 4:25 PM ET · dome
Los Angeles Rams4–4 · Elo 1575 · Matthew Stafford
35–21
Las Vegas Raiders
4–4 · Elo 1414 · Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo) · Home
Final: LAR 35, LV 21. Elo moved LV 1424 → 1396 and LAR 1532 → 1560.
Bold call of the week. LV · Elo gives the Las Vegas Raiders 50% at home against the Los Angeles Rams; the market says 30%. That 20-point gap is the biggest of the week. Cousins is worth +70 Elo to the Raiders. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LV | LAR | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LV 52% | 52% | 48% | -2.0 | LV 1424 vs LAR 1532, implied spread LV −0.4 |
| Closing spread | LAR 60% | 40% | 60% | +9.0 | LV +3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | LAR 61% | 39% | 61% | +9.8 | |
| Kalshi | LAR 62% | 39% | 62% | +9.8 | |
| Polymarket | LAR 62% | 39% | 62% | +9.8 | |
| The blend | LAR 58% | 42% | 58% | +7.4 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Los Angeles Rams over the Raiders: Elo 48%, market 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo.
Details
- Importance 41 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 25.
- Rest: LV 7 days, LAR 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. LV: Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo). LAR: Matthew Stafford (0 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread LV +3, total 48.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.7M traded, $1.6M open · Polymarket: $189k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Rams 35, Raiders 21. Los Angeles Rams at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 7. The Rams won 35 to 21; the game turned on K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle [T.Hamilton].PENALTY on LV-K.Cousins, Intentional G. Attendance 62,550. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Rams at 61%, Elo at 48%, The System at 58%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+9.8).
This was the bold (Las Vegas Raiders) this week: it missed.
- Elo: Rams 48%, -2.0
- The market: Rams 61%, +9.8
- The System: Rams 58%, +7.4
- The bot crowd: Rams 57%, +6.5
How it happened
The swing: K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle [T.Hamilton].PENALTY on LV-K.Cousins, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at LA 30. in the first quarter at 11:37, which moved the home side's chances from 42% to 35%.
- Largest lead: Rams by 25. Lead changes: 0.
- Rams's live win probability ranged from 58% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 13:12: Ashton Jeanty 15 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (LAR 28, LV 18)
- Q4 6:34: Blake Corum 4 Yd Rush (Brandon McManus Kick) (LAR 35, LV 18)
- Q4 4:11: Matt Gay 36 Yd Field Goal (LAR 35, LV 21)
The box score
The Rams won the yards, 386 to 350.
- Total yards: LAR 386, LV 350
- Yards per play: LAR 5.7, LV 5.5
- Third downs: LAR 5-10, LV 3-14
- Turnovers: LAR 2, LV 0
- Penalties: LAR 7-90, LV 6-64
- Possession: LAR 34:14, LV 25:46
- Red zone: LAR 5-5, LV 1-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Raiders -28 to 1396, Rams +28 to 1560. The quarterback adjustment going in was LV +70, LAR 0.
- Matthew Stafford (LAR): 23/29, 195 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 114.8
- Kirk Cousins (LV): 26/44, 295 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 94.4
- Rushing: Mike Washington Jr. (LV), 6 CAR, 27 YDS
- Receiving: Tre Tucker (LV), 5 REC, 103 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Kyren Williams (LAR), 16 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Puka Nacua (LAR), 8 REC, 68 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +12.8 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +6.5 and 8 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Rams 65%, +12.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 17, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 3:40 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward LV by 12 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (LV) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 26% | 39% | +13 | 39 |
| Kalshi | 27% | 39% | +12 | 64 |
| Sportsbooks | 27% | 39% | +12 | 21 |
Consensus over time