Jaguars at Ravens $198k, Raiders at 49ers $58k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills
Final, recorded Sun 4:25 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:57 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 8, 2026 · Highmark Stadium · Sunday, Nov 1, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 9 mph, 70°F
Baltimore Ravens4–4 · Elo 1503 · Lamar Jackson (+13 Elo)
10–36
Buffalo Bills
6–1 · Elo 1646 · Josh Allen · off a bye · Home
Final: BAL 10, BUF 36. Elo moved BUF 1628 → 1646 and BAL 1521 → 1503.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BUF | BAL | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 75% | 75% | 25% | +18.8 | BUF 1628 vs BAL 1521, implied spread BUF −6.3 |
| Closing spread | BUF 59% | 59% | 41% | +8.2 | BUF -3 |
| Sportsbooks | BUF 61% | 61% | 39% | +9.8 | |
| Kalshi | BUF 62% | 62% | 39% | +10.6 | |
| Polymarket | BUF 62% | 62% | 39% | +10.6 | |
| The blend | BUF 65% | 65% | 35% | +12.8 | |
| The crowd (3) | BUF 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 | |
| The sharp crowd | BUF 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Buffalo Bills over the Ravens: Elo 75%, market 61%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. BUF off a bye.
Details
- Importance 43 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 58.
- Rest: BUF 14 days, BAL 7 days. BUF off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. BUF: Josh Allen (-9 Elo). BAL: Lamar Jackson (+13 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 9 mph, 70°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread BUF -3, total 54.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.1M traded, $1.0M open · Polymarket: $149k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Bills 36, Ravens 10. Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Week 8. The Bills won 36 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.Huntley sacked at BLT 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Bills at 61%, Elo at 75%, The System at 65%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+18.8).
- Elo: Bills 75%, +18.8
- The market: Bills 61%, +9.8
- The System: Bills 65%, +12.8
- The crowd: Bills 67%, +14.1
- The bot crowd: Bills 63%, +11.3
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) T.Huntley sacked at BLT 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop], touched at BLT 32, RECOVERED by BUF-K.Elarms-Orr at BLT 20. in the second quarter at 14:10, which moved the home side's chances from 67% to 77%.
- Largest lead: Bills by 26. Lead changes: 0.
- Bills's live win probability ranged from 62% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 8:59: James Cook III 5 Yd Rush (Tyler Bass Kick) (BAL 10, BUF 23)
- Q4 12:18: DJ Moore 11 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (BAL 10, BUF 29)
- Q4 5:58: Dalton Kincaid 23 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Tyler Bass Kick) (BAL 10, BUF 36)
The box score
The Bills won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: BAL 144, BUF 426
- Yards per play: BAL 2.9, BUF 5.6
- Third downs: BAL 3-13, BUF 4-14
- Turnovers: BAL 3, BUF 2
- Penalties: BAL 7-38, BUF 10-87
- Possession: BAL 22:24, BUF 37:36
- Red zone: BAL 1-3, BUF 3-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Bills +18 to 1646, Ravens -18 to 1503. The quarterback adjustment going in was BUF -9, BAL +13.
- Joe Fagnano (BAL): 10/21, 91 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 40
- Josh Allen (BUF): 21/34, 289 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 96.3
- Rushing: James Cook III (BUF), 21 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Dalton Kincaid (BUF), 4 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Derrick Henry (BAL), 11 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Rashod Bateman (BAL), 1 REC, 22 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +13.9 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +11.4 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Mendo, Bills 68%, +14.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 37 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Lions at Dolphins, 6 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills, Week 8. The Bills won 36 to 10; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.Huntley sacked at BLT 33 for -7 yards (C.Bishop). FUMBLES (C.Bishop) [C.Bishop. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 24, 2 PM ET; last change Sun 10:45 AM ET. The consensus has moved away from BUF by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (BUF) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 66% | 62% | -4 | 59 |
| Polymarket | 65% | 62% | -3 | 28 |
| Sportsbooks | 61% | 61% | — | 22 |
Consensus over time