Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Game data updated just now · markets priced 11 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · Lumen Field · Sunday, Nov 8, 4:25 PM ET · outdoors · wind 15 mph (matters), 60°F
Arizona Cardinals3–5 · Elo 1439 · Gardner Minshew II (−87 Elo)
Seattle Seahawks
4–3 · Elo 1643 · Sam Darnold · Home
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ARISEA
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SEA | ARI | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SEA 87% | 87% | 13% | SEA 1643 vs ARI 1439, implied spread SEA −13.5 |
| Sportsbooks | SEA 85% | 85% | 15% | |
| Kalshi | SEA 84% | 84% | 17% | |
| Polymarket | SEA 84% | 84% | 16% | |
| The blend | SEA 87% | 87% | 13% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Seattle Seahawks over the Cardinals: Elo 87%, market 84%. Tight agreement: go above both. Minshew is costing 87 Elo; wind 15 mph (matters), 60°F.
Details
- Importance 34 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 45.
- Rest: SEA 6 days, ARI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. SEA: Sam Darnold (-2 Elo). ARI: Gardner Minshew II (-87 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 15 mph (matters), 60°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread SEA -11.5, total 44.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $16k traded, $13k open · Polymarket: $4k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Jon Gaines II | G | Out | Ankle · out |
| ARI | Kendrick Bourne | WR | Out | Lower Leg · Bourne suffered a fractured right tibia during Sunday's overtime win at Dallas that won't require surgery but will sideline him for three months, ending his 2026 season, Adam Schefter of ESPN reports. |
| ARI | Walter Nolen III | DT | Out | Ankle · out |
| ARI | Bam Knight | RB | Questionable | Concussion · Head coach Mike LaFleur revealed Monday that Knight is in the concussion protocol following Sunday's overtime win in Dallas, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports. |
| ARI | Jayden Williams | OT | Questionable | Knee · Williams (knee) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Cowboys, Darren Urban of the Cardinals' official site reports. |
| ARI | Jeremiyah Love | RB | Questionable | Ankle · Head coach Mike LaFleur said Monday that Love suffered a "new" ankle injury during Sunday's overtime win at Dallas, and that he'll have an update on the running back later this week, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports. |
| ARI | Michael Wilson | WR | Questionable | Ribs · Wilson said after Sunday's 33-30 win at Dallas that he suffered two broken ribs during the contest, Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com reports. |
| SEA | Beau Stephens | G | Out | Coach's Decision · inactive |
| SEA | Brandon Pili | DT | Out | Back · Pili (back) is inactive for Monday night's game against the Bears, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. |
| SEA | Charles Cross | OT | Out | Ankle · inactive |
| SEA | Drew Lock | QB | Out | Elbow · Lock (coach's decision) is inactive for Monday's matchup with the Bears, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. |
| SEA | Rashid Shaheed | WR | Out | Knee · inactive |
| SEA | Uchenna Nwosu | LB | Out | Ankle · Nwosu (ankle) is inactive for Monday's clash with the Bears, John Boyle of the Seahawks' official site reports. |
| SEA | Velus Jones Jr. | RB | Out | Hamstring · inactive |
On the Wire
Jacoby Brissett started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Cardinals is now -87 points on Cardinals at Seahawks. Read more →
Drew Lock started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Seahawks is now -2 points on Cardinals at Seahawks. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Oct 31, 5 PM ET; last change Mon 9:51 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from SEA by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (SEA) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 86% | 84% | -2 | 33 |
| Polymarket | 85% | 84% | -1 | 38 |
| Sportsbooks | 85% | 85% | — | 5 |
Consensus over time