Carson Wentz started last time out. Elo's quarterback adjustment for the Vikings is now +100 points on Bills at Vikings. Read more →
← Back to Week 9 picks · Back to Week 9 predictions
Buffalo Bills at Minnesota Vikings
Game data updated 2 min ago · markets priced 9 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 9, 2026 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Monday, Nov 9, 8:15 PM ET · dome
Buffalo Bills6–1 · Elo 1646 · Josh Allen
Minnesota Vikings
6–1 · Elo 1584 · Kyler Murray (+100 Elo) · Home
Make your pick
Slide toward the team you think wins, or tap a number.
BUFMIN
Try the slider; sign in when you want to save.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIN | BUF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | MIN 63% | 63% | 37% | MIN 1584 vs BUF 1646, implied spread MIN −3.8 |
| Closing spread | BUF 60% | 40% | 60% | MIN +3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | BUF 62% | 38% | 62% | |
| Kalshi | BUF 64% | 37% | 64% | |
| Polymarket | BUF 63% | 38% | 63% | |
| The blend | BUF 56% | 44% | 56% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Buffalo Bills over the Vikings: Elo 37%, market 63%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Murray is worth 100 Elo.
Details
- Importance 29 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 71.
- Rest: MIN 8 days, BUF 8 days.
- Quarterbacks. MIN: Kyler Murray (+100 Elo). BUF: Josh Allen (-9 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread MIN +3.5, total 46. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $16k traded, $13k open · Polymarket: $443 traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Dee Alford | CB | Out | Ankle · Alford (ankle) is inactive for Sunday's game against Baltimore. |
| BUF | Greg Gaines | DT | Out | Calf · out |
| BUF | Spencer Brown | OT | Out | Back · out |
| BUF | Tyrell Shavers | WR | Out | Knee - ACL · The Bills designated Shavers (knee) to return from the reserve/PUP list Wednesday, but he will not play against the Ravens on Sunday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| BUF | DJ Moore | WR | Questionable | Knee · Moore indicated following Sunday's 36-10 win over the Ravens that he's okay in the wake of his late-game exit due to a knee issue, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| BUF | Joshua Palmer | WR | Questionable | Hamstring · Palmer (hamstring) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Ravens. |
| MIN | Christian Darrisaw | OT | Questionable | Shoulder · questionable |
| MIN | Kyler Murray | QB | Questionable | Hamstring · Murray (hamstring), who is dealing with a sore hamstring, is undergoing a full evaluation to determine the extent of the issue, Alec Lewis of The Athletic reports. |
| MIN | Theo Jackson | S | Questionable | Quadriceps · Jackson (quadriceps) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Lions. |
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sun, Nov 1, 8 PM ET; last change Mon 8:43 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from MIN by 5 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (MIN) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 41% | 38% | -3 | 11 |
| Kalshi | 42% | 37% | -5 | 18 |
| Sportsbooks | 43% | 38% | -5 | 2 |
Consensus over time