Game plan · Week 10
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Chase. Stretch every number 15% further from 50. Costs almost nothing in expectation, under 0.1 a week; adds an eighth to the week's swing.
This plan expects 30.6 points this week, give or take 58 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 31.3.
A typical week lands between -27 and 88. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -43.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 14 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH at NYG Thu 8:15 PM ET | NYG 51% | 51% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NE at DET Sun 9:30 AM ET | NE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CAR at NO Sun 1:00 PM ET | NO 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| JAX at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| MIA at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET | IND 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| KC at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET | KC 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| HOU at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET | CLE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| MIN at GB Sun 1:00 PM ET | MIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| BUF at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| SEA at LV Sun 4:05 PM ET | SEA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LAR at ARI Sun 4:05 PM ET | LAR 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| SF at DAL Sun 4:25 PM ET | SF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| PIT at CIN Sun 8:20 PM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LAC at BAL Mon 8:15 PM ET | BAL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.