Game plan · Week 12
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Protect. Shrink every number 10% toward 50. Gives up a little over a point a week; cuts the week's swing by a tenth.
This plan expects 48.7 points this week, give or take 54 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right. Playing straight would expect 49.2.
A typical week lands between -5 and 103. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -20.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 16 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GB at LAR Wed 8:00 PM ET | LAR 61% | 63% | +1.6 | No market line yet. |
| CHI at DET Thu 1:00 PM ET | CHI 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| PHI at DAL Thu 4:30 PM ET | DAL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| KC at BUF Thu 8:20 PM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| DEN at PIT Fri 3:00 PM ET | PIT 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NYG at IND Sun 1:00 PM ET | IND 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| BAL at HOU Sun 1:00 PM ET | HOU 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NO at CIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | CIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LV at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET | CLE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NYJ at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET | MIA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| ATL at MIN Sun 1:00 PM ET | MIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| TEN at JAX Sun 4:05 PM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| WSH at ARI Sun 4:25 PM ET | WSH 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| SEA at SF Sun 4:25 PM ET | SF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NE at LAC Sun 8:20 PM ET | NE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| CAR at TB Mon 8:15 PM ET | TB 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.