Game plan · Week 17
Sign up and the plan is fitted to you: where you stand on the leaderboard decides whether to protect a lead, play straight, or chase. Below is the same plan for everyone in each mode: which games to press, which to keep near 50, with The System's numbers on this week's featured game and on games that have kicked off.
The recommendation treats week-to-week differences between good players as roughly normal with a 25-point spread, and uses the replay's measured cost and swing of each mode. It's a guide, not a guarantee.
Straight. Play The System's numbers as they are. Highest expected points.
This plan expects 55.3 points this week, give or take 65 (one standard deviation), if The System's numbers are right.
A typical week lands between -10 and 120. Roughly one week in ten goes worse than -28.
Sign up to apply this planEvery number, your recommended mode, and one button that sets your picks.
Play straight 16 games
Clear favorites with mild disagreement, and the rest. Nothing to exploit; the number is the number.
| Game | Play | System | Expects | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL at CIN Thu 8:15 PM ET | CIN 70% | 70% | +3.9 | No market line yet. |
| LAR at TB Sun 12:00 AM ET | LAR 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| DEN at NE Sun 12:00 AM ET | NE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| KC at LAC Sun 12:00 AM ET | KC 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| WSH at JAX Sun 12:00 AM ET | JAX 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NYG at DAL Sun 1:00 PM ET | DAL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| PIT at TEN Sun 1:00 PM ET | PIT 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| BUF at MIA Sun 1:00 PM ET | BUF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| NO at ATL Sun 1:00 PM ET | ATL 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| MIN at NYJ Sun 1:00 PM ET | MIN 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| SEA at CAR Sun 1:00 PM ET | SEA 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| IND at CLE Sun 1:00 PM ET | CLE 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| LV at ARI Sun 4:05 PM ET | LV 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| DET at CHI Sun 4:25 PM ET | CHI 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| PHI at SF Sun 8:20 PM ET | SF 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
| HOU at GB Mon 8:15 PM ET | GB 00% | 00% | +0.0 | No market line yet. |
Expected points assume The System's probability is the truth; the Nudges page tracks whether it is. The plan is the same for everyone in a mode; what changes with your standing is which mode makes sense.