Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 2 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 17, 2026 · Sunday, Jan 3, 6:00 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | BUF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 54% | 46% | 54% | MIA 1440 vs BUF 1612, implied spread MIA +1.0 |
| Closing spread | BUF 71% | 29% | 71% | MIA +7.5 |
| The blend | BUF 67% | 33% | 67% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Buffalo Bills over the Dolphins: Elo 54%, market 71%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo.
Details
- Rest: MIA 7 days, BUF 9 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: MIA +90 (Malik Willis), BUF -9 (Josh Allen). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.