Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
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Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins
Game data updated 2 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 17, 2026 · Hard Rock Stadium · Sunday, Jan 3, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors
Buffalo Bills6–1 · Elo 1646 · Josh Allen
Miami Dolphins
1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+90 Elo) · Home
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What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | MIA | BUF | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 68% | 32% | 68% | MIA 1369 vs BUF 1646, implied spread MIA +5.2 |
| The blend | BUF 68% | 32% | 68% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
No market line yet.
Details
- Rest: MIA 7 days, BUF 9 days.
- Quarterbacks. MIA: Malik Willis (+90 Elo). BUF: Josh Allen (-9 Elo). Expected starters from ESPN's depth chart with the injury report applied, refreshed every three hours.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Injury report
ESPN's report, refreshed every three hours. Out and doubtful players are treated as unavailable; questionable players usually play. Only the quarterback feeds Elo directly; the rest is in the market's number.
| Team | Player | Pos | Status | Injury |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | Dee Alford | CB | Out | Ankle · Alford (ankle) is inactive for Sunday's game against Baltimore. |
| BUF | Greg Gaines | DT | Out | Calf · out |
| BUF | Spencer Brown | OT | Out | Back · out |
| BUF | Tyrell Shavers | WR | Out | Knee - ACL · The Bills designated Shavers (knee) to return from the reserve/PUP list Wednesday, but he will not play against the Ravens on Sunday, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| BUF | DJ Moore | WR | Questionable | Knee · Moore indicated following Sunday's 36-10 win over the Ravens that he's okay in the wake of his late-game exit due to a knee issue, Cameron Wolfe of NFL Network reports. |
| BUF | Joshua Palmer | WR | Questionable | Hamstring · Palmer (hamstring) has been ruled out for the rest of Sunday's game against the Ravens. |
| MIA | Kadyn Proctor | OT | Out | Concussion · out |
| MIA | Malik Herring | DE | Questionable | Undisclosed · Herring (neck) is questionable to return to Sunday's contest against New England. |
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.