Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Final, recorded Sun 7:15 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:07 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Levi's Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 4:25 PM ET · outdoors · wind 7 mph, 66°F
Miami Dolphins1–6 · Elo 1369 · Malik Willis (+90 Elo)
13–35
San Francisco 49ers
6–1 · Elo 1619 · Brock Purdy · off a bye · Home
Final: MIA 13, SF 35. Elo moved SF 1584 → 1603 and MIA 1440 → 1421.
Bold call of the week. MIA · Elo gives the Miami Dolphins 33% on the road against the San Francisco 49ers; the market says 11%. That 21-point gap is the biggest of the week. Willis is worth +90 Elo to the Dolphins; 49ers are off a bye. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SF | MIA | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SF 67% | 67% | 33% | +14.1 | SF 1584 vs MIA 1440, implied spread SF −5.1 |
| Closing spread | SF 82% | 82% | 18% | +21.8 | SF -12.5 |
| Sportsbooks | SF 88% | 88% | 12% | +23.6 | |
| Kalshi | SF 89% | 89% | 12% | +23.8 | |
| Polymarket | SF 89% | 89% | 12% | +23.8 | |
| The blend | SF 83% | 83% | 17% | +22.1 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
San Francisco 49ers over the Dolphins: Elo 67%, market 88%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; SF off a bye.
Details
- Importance 43 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 36.
- Rest: SF 10 days, MIA 7 days. SF off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. SF: Brock Purdy (-1 Elo). MIA: Malik Willis (+90 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph, 66°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread SF -13.5, total 45. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $930k traded, $798k open · Polymarket: $1.0M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
49ers 35, Dolphins 13. Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers, Week 2. The 49ers won 35 to 13; the game turned on Official Timeout at 04:17.. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the 49ers at 88%, Elo at 67%, The System at 83%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+23.6).
This was the bold (Miami Dolphins) this week: it missed.
- Elo: 49ers 67%, +14.1
- The market: 49ers 88%, +23.6
- The System: 49ers 83%, +22.1
- The bot crowd: 49ers 83%, +22.1
How it happened
The swing: Official Timeout at 04:17. in the first quarter at 4:17, which moved the home side's chances from 94% to 89%.
- Largest lead: 49ers by 29. Lead changes: 0.
- 49ers's live win probability ranged from 88% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 5:46: Kyle Juszczyk 6 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick) (MIA 6, SF 28)
- Q3 3:10: Christian McCaffrey 1 Yd Rush (Eddy Pineiro Kick) (MIA 6, SF 35)
- Q4 2:30: Ryan Miller 77 Yd pass from Malik Willis (Riley Patterson Kick) (MIA 13, SF 35)
The box score
The 49ers won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: MIA 284, SF 382
- Yards per play: MIA 5.1, SF 7.8
- Third downs: MIA 7-15, SF 5-7
- Turnovers: MIA 0, SF 0
- Penalties: MIA 7-50, SF 7-78
- Possession: MIA 30:13, SF 29:47
- Red zone: MIA 0-2, SF 5-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: 49ers +19 to 1603, Dolphins -19 to 1421. The quarterback adjustment going in was SF -1, MIA +90.
- Malik Willis (MIA): 14/23, 197 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 103
- Brock Purdy (SF): 20/22, 287 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 149.1
- Rushing: Brock Purdy (SF), 3 CAR, 30 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: George Kittle (SF), 4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: De'Von Achane (MIA), 20 CAR, 74 YDS
- Receiving: Ryan Miller (MIA), 1 REC, 77 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +24.9 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +21.5 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: an anonymous player, 49ers 100%, +25.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 4:07 PM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (SF) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 87% | 88% | — | 5 |
| Polymarket | 90% | 89% | -1 | 1 |
| Kalshi | 90% | 89% | -1 | 1 |
Consensus over time