Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ers
Game data updated 26 min ago · markets priced 26 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 20, 8:25 PM · outdoors · wind 7 mph, 74°F
Miami Dolphins
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SF | MIA | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SF 67% | 67% | 33% | SF 1584 vs MIA 1440, implied spread SF −5.1 |
| Closing spread | SF 84% | 84% | 16% | SF -13.5 |
| Sportsbooks | SF 87% | 87% | 13% | |
| Kalshi | SF 90% | 90% | 10% | |
| Polymarket | SF 90% | 90% | 10% | |
| The blend | SF 83% | 83% | 17% |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in, it's free.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
San Francisco 49ers over the Dolphins: Elo 67%, market 89%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Willis is worth 90 Elo; SF off a bye.
Details
- Importance 43 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 36.
- Rest: SF 10 days, MIA 7 days. SF off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterback adjustment: SF -1 (Brock Purdy), MIA +90 (Malik Willis). How that works.
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 7 mph, 74°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 4 AM; last change Fri 4:37 AM. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (SF) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 90% | 90% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 90% | 90% | — | 0 |
| Sportsbooks | 87% | 87% | — | 0 |