Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
Final, recorded Sun 3:55 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:53 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · M&T Bank Stadium · Sunday, Sep 20, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 11 mph, 80°F (heat hurts favorites)
New Orleans Saints2–5 · Elo 1451 · Tyler Shough (−16 Elo)
24–17
Baltimore Ravens
4–4 · Elo 1503 · Lamar Jackson (+13 Elo) · Home
Final: NO 24, BAL 17. Elo moved BAL 1559 → 1527 and NO 1472 → 1504.
Lock of the week. BAL · Elo gives the Baltimore Ravens 72% at home against the New Orleans Saints and the market says 78%. No game this week has both more sure of the same team. Jackson is worth +13 Elo to the Ravens; Shough is worth -16 Elo to the Saints. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BAL | NO | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BAL 72% | 72% | 28% | -26.8 | BAL 1559 vs NO 1472, implied spread BAL −6.6 |
| Closing spread | BAL 74% | 74% | 26% | -29.8 | BAL -8.5 |
| Sportsbooks | BAL 78% | 78% | 22% | -35.8 | |
| Kalshi | BAL 79% | 79% | 21% | -37.4 | |
| Polymarket | BAL 79% | 79% | 21% | -37.4 | |
| The blend | BAL 77% | 77% | 23% | -34.3 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Baltimore Ravens over the Saints: Elo 72%, market 78%. Clear favorite, take the average. Shough is costing 16 Elo; wind 11 mph, 80°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 46 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 38.
- Rest: BAL 7 days, NO 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. BAL: Lamar Jackson (+13 Elo). NO: Tyler Shough (-16 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 11 mph, 80°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread BAL -8.5, total 45.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $498k traded, $455k open · Polymarket: $276k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Saints 24, Ravens 17: the upset. New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens, Week 2. The Saints won 24 to 17 as a 78% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson to BLT 5 for 25 yards (J.Hawkins).PENALTY. Attendance 70,437. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Saints at 22%, Elo at 28%, The System at 24%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-26.8).
This was the lock (Baltimore Ravens) this week: it missed.
- Elo: Saints 28%, -26.8
- The market: Saints 22%, -35.8
- The System: Saints 24%, -32.8
- The bot crowd: Saints 23%, -34.3
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) T.Shough pass short right to J.Johnson to BLT 5 for 25 yards (J.Hawkins).PENALTY on BLT-T.Hendrickson, Roughing the Passer, 3 yards, enforced at BLT 5. in the fourth quarter at 2:03, which moved the home side's chances from 40% to 17%.
- Largest lead: Ravens by 11. Lead changes: 1.
- Saints's live win probability ranged from 8% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 3:23: Tyler Loop 49 Yd Field Goal (NO 9, BAL 17)
- Q4 9:42: Chris Olave 21 Yd pass from Tyler Shough (Travis Etienne Jr. Run for Two-Point Conversion) (NO 17, BAL 17)
- Q4 1:28: Tyler Shough 1 Yd Rush (Daniel Carlson Kick) (NO 24, BAL 17)
The box score
The Ravens outgained the Saints (312 to 298 yards) and lost on turnovers (1 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: NO 298, BAL 312
- Yards per play: NO 4.7, BAL 5.6
- Third downs: NO 8-15, BAL 4-9
- Turnovers: NO 0, BAL 1
- Penalties: NO 5-35, BAL 7-34
- Possession: NO 32:45, BAL 27:15
- Red zone: NO 1-2, BAL 1-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Ravens -32 to 1527, Saints +32 to 1504. The quarterback adjustment going in was BAL +13, NO -16.
- Tyler Shough (NO): 27/34, 252 yds, 1 TD, 0 INT, QBR 107.4
- Lamar Jackson (BAL): 21/31, 235 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 87.4
- Rushing: Derrick Henry (BAL), 16 CAR, 68 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Rashod Bateman (BAL), 7 REC, 88 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Travis Etienne Jr. (NO), 8 CAR, 25 YDS
- Receiving: Chris Olave (NO), 8 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -40.9 and 0 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged -34.5 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Ravens 72%, -26.8.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Most affected: Jaguars at Ravens (6 out or doubtful). Out at key spots: Jaylinn Hawkins (BAL, S), Lamar Jackson (BAL, QB), Eric Murray (JAX, S), Antonio Johnson (JAX, S). Every game page carries the full list for both teams. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Sun 10:34 AM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (BAL) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sportsbooks | 77% | 78% | — | 7 |
| Kalshi | 79% | 79% | — | 0 |
| Polymarket | 79% | 79% | — | 0 |
Consensus over time