Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams
Final, recorded Mon 11:17 PM ET · markets priced Mon 7:48 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 2, 2026 · SoFi Stadium · Monday, Sep 21, 8:15 PM ET · dome
New York Giants4–2–1 · Elo 1504 · Jaxson Dart
6–28
Los Angeles Rams
4–4 · Elo 1575 · Matthew Stafford · off a bye · Home
Final: NYG 6, LAR 28. Elo moved LAR 1545 → 1562 and NYG 1474 → 1457.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LAR | NYG | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | LAR 70% | 70% | 30% | +16.0 | LAR 1545 vs NYG 1474, implied spread LAR −5.9 |
| Closing spread | LAR 69% | 69% | 31% | +15.4 | LAR -6.5 |
| Sportsbooks | LAR 73% | 73% | 27% | +17.7 | |
| Kalshi | LAR 72% | 72% | 29% | +17.2 | |
| Polymarket | LAR 73% | 73% | 28% | +17.7 | |
| The blend | LAR 74% | 74% | 26% | +18.2 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Los Angeles Rams over the Giants: Elo 70%, market 72%. Tight agreement: go above both. LAR off a bye.
Details
- Importance 38 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 36.
- Rest: LAR 11 days, NYG 8 days. LAR off a bye (+25 Elo).
- Quarterbacks. LAR: Matthew Stafford (0 Elo). NYG: Jaxson Dart (-4 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread LAR -6.5, total 47.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $2.4M traded, $2.0M open · Polymarket: $2.3M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Rams 28, Giants 6. New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams, Week 2. The Rams won 28 to 6; the game turned on (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra p. Attendance 73,773. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Rams at 72%, Elo at 70%, The System at 73%. Best forecaster on this game: The bot crowd (+18.2).
- Elo: Rams 70%, +16.0
- The market: Rams 72%, +17.2
- The System: Rams 73%, +17.7
- The bot crowd: Rams 74%, +18.2
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short middle to D.Adams for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. H.Mevis extra point is GOOD, Center-J.Cardona, Holder-E.Evans. in the first quarter at 0:11, which moved the home side's chances from 70% to 79%.
- Largest lead: Rams by 22. Lead changes: 0.
- Rams's live win probability ranged from 58% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 6:21: Davante Adams 11 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick) (NYG 3, LAR 21)
- Q3 3:49: Dominic Zvada 52 Yd Field Goal (NYG 6, LAR 21)
- Q4 8:57: Terrance Ferguson 5 Yd pass from Matthew Stafford (Harrison Mevis Kick) (NYG 6, LAR 28)
The box score
The Rams won the yards, 481 to 182.
- Total yards: NYG 182, LAR 481
- Yards per play: NYG 3.3, LAR 8.0
- Third downs: NYG 3-14, LAR 5-9
- Turnovers: NYG 1, LAR 2
- Penalties: NYG 3-20, LAR 6-50
- Possession: NYG 27:25, LAR 32:35
- Red zone: NYG 0-2, LAR 3-3
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Rams +18 to 1562, Giants -18 to 1457.
- Jameis Winston (NYG): 11/27, 111 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 37.7
- Matthew Stafford (LAR): 22/31, 327 yds, 4 TD, 1 INT, QBR 131.3
- Rushing: Kyren Williams (LAR), 12 CAR, 85 YDS
- Receiving: Davante Adams (LAR), 8 REC, 195 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Cam Skattebo (NYG), 12 CAR, 36 YDS
- Receiving: Darnell Mooney (NYG), 2 REC, 48 YDS
The players
2 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +19.5 and 2 of 2 had the winner; agents averaged +18.3 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Rams 86%, +23.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Fri, Sep 18, 12 AM ET; last change Mon 7:20 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from LAR by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (LAR) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 75% | 72% | -3 | 4 |
| Sportsbooks | 74% | 73% | -2 | 12 |
| Polymarket | 75% | 73% | -2 | 2 |
Consensus over time