Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
← Back to Week 3 picks · Back to Week 3 predictions
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers
Final, recorded Sun 7:20 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:00 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Levi's Stadium · Sunday, Sep 27, 4:05 PM ET · outdoors · wind 5 mph, 68°F
Arizona Cardinals3–5 · Elo 1439 · Jacoby Brissett (−40 Elo)
30–36
San Francisco 49ers
6–1 · Elo 1619 · Brock Purdy · Home
Final: ARI 30, SF 36. Elo moved SF 1603 → 1611 and ARI 1469 → 1461.
Lock of the week. SF · Elo gives the San Francisco 49ers 74% at home against the Arizona Cardinals and the market says 74%. No game this week has both more sure of the same team. Brissett is worth -40 Elo to the Cardinals. Hit.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | SF | ARI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | SF 78% | 78% | 22% | +20.2 | SF 1603 vs ARI 1469, implied spread SF −8.9 |
| Closing spread | SF 71% | 71% | 29% | +16.6 | SF -7.5 |
| Sportsbooks | SF 76% | 76% | 24% | +19.2 | |
| Kalshi | SF 78% | 78% | 22% | +20.2 | |
| Polymarket | SF 78% | 78% | 22% | +20.2 | |
| The blend | SF 79% | 79% | 21% | +20.6 | |
| The crowd (4) | SF 81% | 81% | 19% | +21.4 | |
| The sharp crowd | SF 80% | 80% | 20% | +21.0 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
San Francisco 49ers over the Cardinals: Elo 78%, market 77%. Tight agreement: go above both. Brissett is costing 40 Elo.
Details
- Importance 42 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 44.
- Rest: SF 7 days, ARI 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. SF: Brock Purdy (-1 Elo). ARI: Jacoby Brissett (-40 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 5 mph, 68°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread SF -7.5, total 48.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $659k traded, $603k open · Polymarket: $385k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
49ers 36, Cardinals 30. Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers, Week 3. The 49ers won 36 to 30; the game turned on (Shotgun) B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty.PENALTY . Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the 49ers at 77%, Elo at 78%, The System at 81%. Best forecaster on this game: The System (+21.4).
This was the lock (San Francisco 49ers) this week: it hit.
- Elo: 49ers 78%, +20.2
- The market: 49ers 77%, +19.7
- The System: 49ers 81%, +21.4
- The crowd: 49ers 81%, +21.4
- The bot crowd: 49ers 79%, +20.6
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) B.Purdy scrambles left end for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN NULLIFIED by Penalty.PENALTY on SF-G.Kittle, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARZ 10. in the fourth quarter at 1:52, which moved the home side's chances from 89% to 100%.
- Largest lead: 49ers by 17. Lead changes: 0.
- 49ers's live win probability ranged from 83% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 2:51: Jacoby Brissett 1 Yd Rush (Chad Ryland Kick) (ARI 27, SF 29)
- Q4 1:31: George Kittle 20 Yd pass from Brock Purdy (Eddy Pineiro Kick) (ARI 27, SF 36)
- Q4 0:34: Chad Ryland 49 Yd Field Goal (ARI 30, SF 36)
The box score
The 49ers won the yards, 437 to 365.
- Total yards: ARI 365, SF 437
- Yards per play: ARI 4.5, SF 8.7
- Third downs: ARI 9-18, SF 5-8
- Turnovers: ARI 0, SF 1
- Penalties: ARI 10-86, SF 7-69
- Possession: ARI 38:44, SF 21:16
- Red zone: ARI 3-5, SF 2-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: 49ers +8 to 1611, Cardinals -8 to 1461. The quarterback adjustment going in was SF -1, ARI -40.
- Jacoby Brissett (ARI): 38/52, 280 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 98.2
- Brock Purdy (SF): 15/27, 297 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, QBR 133.8
- Rushing: Christian McCaffrey (SF), 15 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: George Kittle (SF), 6 REC, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- Rushing: Jeremiyah Love (ARI), 21 CAR, 90 YDS
- Receiving: Michael Wilson (ARI), 11 REC, 89 YDS, 1 TD
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +21.2 and 4 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged +20.5 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Presser, 49ers 87%, +23.3.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Lions at Dolphins: 87°F heat at kickoff Sunday 1 PM ET. Cardinals at Seahawks: 15 mph wind at kickoff Sunday 4 PM ET. In wind of 15+ mph, favorites have won 62% against a 65% forecast over 27 seasons; The System shrinks toward 50. In heat above 75°F favorites underperform slightly; The System shrinks a tenth. Read more →
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 19, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 2:27 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from SF by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (SF) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 79% | 78% | -1 | 35 |
| Kalshi | 80% | 78% | -3 | 29 |
| Sportsbooks | 79% | 76% | -3 | 22 |
Consensus over time