Carolina Panthers at Cleveland Browns
Game data updated 2 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Sunday, Sep 27, 5:00 PM · outdoors
Carolina Panthers0–1 · Elo 1431 · Bryce Young
Cleveland Browns
0–1 · Elo 1423 · Deshaun Watson (+34) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CLE | CAR | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CLE 60% | 60% | 40% | CLE 1423 vs CAR 1431, implied spread CLE −2.8 |
| Closing spread | CAR 57% | 43% | 57% | CLE +2.5 |
| The blend | CAR 53% | 47% | 53% |
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The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 24 seasons (943 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 63% and the market 49%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Carolina Panthers over the Browns: Elo 40%, market 57%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo.
Details
- Rest: CLE 7 days, CAR 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: CLE +34 (Deshaun Watson), CAR +6 (Bryce Young). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.