Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears
Final, recorded Mon 11:14 PM ET · markets priced Mon 8:00 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 3, 2026 · Soldier Field · Monday, Sep 28, 8:15 PM ET · outdoors · wind 5 mph, 63°F
Philadelphia Eagles2–6 · Elo 1401 · Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo)
7–27
Chicago Bears
5–2 · Elo 1604 · Case Keenum (−100 Elo) · Home
Final: PHI 7, CHI 27. Elo moved CHI 1537 → 1576 and PHI 1549 → 1510.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CHI | PHI | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PHI 61% | 39% | 61% | -12.2 | CHI 1537 vs PHI 1549, implied spread CHI +3.3 |
| Closing spread | PHI 60% | 40% | 60% | -11.0 | CHI +3.5 |
| Sportsbooks | PHI 64% | 36% | 64% | -16.0 | |
| Kalshi | PHI 64% | 37% | 64% | -14.7 | |
| Polymarket | PHI 64% | 37% | 64% | -14.7 | |
| The blend | PHI 65% | 35% | 65% | -17.2 | |
| The crowd (4) | PHI 66% | 34% | 66% | -18.6 | |
| The sharp crowd | PHI 66% | 34% | 66% | -18.6 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Tight agreement
Elo and the market agree on the favorite within 4 points. Over 27 seasons (2,607 games) favorites here won 69.8% against a 67.6% forecast; in 2023–25 it ran hotter, 74% against 66%. Lean a little toward the favorite. The blend adds 2 points.
Philadelphia Eagles over the Bears: Elo 61%, market 64%. Tight agreement: go above both. Keenum is costing 100 Elo; Hurts is worth 17 Elo.
Details
- Importance 46 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 48.
- Rest: CHI 8 days, PHI 8 days.
- Quarterbacks. CHI: Case Keenum (-100 Elo). PHI: Jalen Hurts (+17 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 5 mph, 63°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread CHI +3.5, total 41.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $2.7M traded, $2.5M open · Polymarket: $2.3M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Bears 27, Eagles 7: the upset. Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears, Week 3. The Bears won 27 to 7 as a 64% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short left to D.Smith to CHI 1 for 8 yards (X.Woods; M.Muhammad).. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Bears at 36%, Elo at 39%, The System at 35%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-12.2).
- Elo: Bears 39%, -12.2
- The market: Bears 36%, -16.0
- The System: Bears 35%, -17.2
- The crowd: Bears 34%, -18.6
- The bot crowd: Bears 34%, -18.6
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) J.Hurts pass short left to D.Smith to CHI 1 for 8 yards (X.Woods; M.Muhammad). in the second quarter at 0:19, which moved the home side's chances from 30% to 59%.
- Largest lead: Bears by 20. Lead changes: 0.
- Bears's live win probability ranged from 30% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q3 10:17: Cairo Santos 48 Yd Field Goal (PHI 7, CHI 13)
- Q3 5:47: Kalif Raymond 41 Yd pass from Case Keenum (Cairo Santos Kick) (PHI 7, CHI 20)
- Q4 7:19: Case Keenum 1 Yd Rush (Cairo Santos Kick) (PHI 7, CHI 27)
The box score
The Bears won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: PHI 248, CHI 375
- Yards per play: PHI 5.3, CHI 5.4
- Third downs: PHI 2-9, CHI 5-13
- Turnovers: PHI 3, CHI 0
- Penalties: PHI 10-61, CHI 5-45
- Possession: PHI 23:07, CHI 36:53
- Red zone: PHI 1-2, CHI 2-5
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Bears +39 to 1576, Eagles -39 to 1510. The quarterback adjustment going in was CHI -100, PHI +17.
- Jalen Hurts (PHI): 16/25, 153 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT, QBR 64.2
- Case Keenum (CHI): 24/34, 247 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 110.8
- Rushing: D'Andre Swift (CHI), 20 CAR, 84 YDS
- Receiving: Kalif Raymond (CHI), 6 REC, 90 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Saquon Barkley (PHI), 15 CAR, 82 YDS
- Receiving: DeVonta Smith (PHI), 6 REC, 65 YDS
The players
4 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -19.0 and 0 of 4 had the winner; agents averaged -19.3 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Eagles 61%, -12.2.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Since Friday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Lions at Dolphins, 4 points toward MIA, now 26% for the home side (Elo 41%); Raiders at 49ers, 3 points toward LV, now 80% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 1 more below. Read more →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sun, Sep 20, 8 PM ET; last change Mon 6:05 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward CHI by 3 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (CHI) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 35% | 37% | +2 | 25 |
| Polymarket | 33% | 37% | +4 | 27 |
| Sportsbooks | 36% | 36% | -1 | 20 |
Consensus over time