Jaguars at Ravens $216k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders
Final, recorded Sun 7:50 PM ET · markets priced Sun 4:10 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium · Sunday, Oct 4, 4:25 PM ET · dome
Kansas City Chiefs5–2 · Elo 1539 · Patrick Mahomes (+46 Elo)
30–27
Las Vegas Raiders
4–4 · Elo 1414 · Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo) · Home
Final: KC 30, LV 27. Elo moved LV 1474 → 1460 and KC 1552 → 1565.
Bold call of the week. LV · Elo gives the Las Vegas Raiders 50% at home against the Kansas City Chiefs; the market says 33%. That 17-point gap is the biggest of the week. Cousins is worth +70 Elo to the Raiders; Mahomes is worth +46 Elo to the Chiefs. Missed.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | LV | KC | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | KC 51% | 49% | 51% | +1.0 | LV 1474 vs KC 1552, implied spread LV +0.2 |
| Closing spread | KC 63% | 37% | 63% | +11.3 | LV +4.5 |
| Sportsbooks | KC 66% | 34% | 66% | +13.4 | |
| Kalshi | KC 68% | 33% | 68% | +14.1 | |
| Polymarket | KC 69% | 32% | 69% | +14.8 | |
| The blend | KC 63% | 37% | 63% | +11.3 | |
| The crowd (3) | KC 63% | 37% | 63% | +11.3 | |
| The sharp crowd | KC 63% | 37% | 63% | +11.3 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Kansas City Chiefs over the Raiders: Elo 51%, market 67%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Cousins is worth 70 Elo; Mahomes is worth 46 Elo.
Details
- Importance 33 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 37.
- Rest: LV 7 days, KC 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. LV: Kirk Cousins (+70 Elo). KC: Patrick Mahomes (+46 Elo).
- Weather. Indoors (dome), so no weather adjustment.
- The line. Spread LV +4.5, total 48. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $3.6M traded, $3.3M open · Polymarket: $545k traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Chiefs 30, Raiders 27: back and forth. Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders, Week 4. The Chiefs won 30 to 27; the game turned on (Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass deep left to T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (T.Stukes). KC-T.Tho. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
The expected result: the market had the Chiefs at 67%, Elo at 51%, The System at 63%. Best forecaster on this game: The market (+14.1).
This was the bold (Las Vegas Raiders) this week: it missed.
- Elo: Chiefs 51%, +1.0
- The market: Chiefs 67%, +14.1
- The System: Chiefs 63%, +11.3
- The crowd: Chiefs 63%, +11.3
- The bot crowd: Chiefs 62%, +10.6
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) P.Mahomes pass deep left to T.Thornton to LV 5 for 55 yards (T.Stukes). KC-T.Thornton was injured during the play. PENALTY on LV-Q.Walker, Unnecessary Roughness, 3 yards, enforced at LV 5. in the fourth quarter at 3:35, which moved the home side's chances from 53% to 25%.
- Largest lead: Chiefs by 11. Lead changes: 3.
- Chiefs's live win probability ranged from 42% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 3:21: Kenneth Walker III 2 Yd Rush (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (KC 23, LV 19)
- Q4 3:02: Kenneth Walker III 22 Yd Rush (Harrison Butker Kick) (KC 30, LV 19)
- Q4 1:46: Brock Bowers 20 Yd pass from Kirk Cousins (Kirk Cousins Pass to Cody White for Two-Point Conversion) (KC 30, LV 27)
The box score
The Raiders outgained the Chiefs (437 to 399 yards) and lost on turnovers (2 to 0). The better team on the day lost.
- Total yards: KC 399, LV 437
- Yards per play: KC 6.9, LV 5.6
- Third downs: KC 5-13, LV 5-14
- Turnovers: KC 0, LV 2
- Penalties: KC 8-59, LV 6-30
- Possession: KC 24:18, LV 35:42
- Red zone: KC 3-4, LV 0-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Raiders -14 to 1460, Chiefs +14 to 1565. The quarterback adjustment going in was LV +70, KC +46.
- Patrick Mahomes (KC): 15/30, 225 yds, 2 TD, 0 INT, QBR 97.2
- Kirk Cousins (LV): 31/52, 365 yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, QBR 85.8
- Rushing: Ashton Jeanty (LV), 15 CAR, 58 YDS
- Receiving: Brock Bowers (LV), 6 REC, 86 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Kenneth Walker III (KC), 22 CAR, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- Receiving: Tyquan Thornton (KC), 5 REC, 111 YDS, 2 TD
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged +11.1 and 3 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged +10.4 and 9 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Exchange, Chiefs 67%, +14.1.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
Since Saturday: Jaguars at Ravens, 38 points toward JAX, now 21% for the home side (Elo 40%); Giants at Eagles, 6 points toward NYG, now 40% for the home side (Elo 47%); Rams at Commanders, 4 points toward LAR, now 30% for the home side (Elo 40%); Broncos at Panthers, 4 points toward DEN, now 41% for the home side (Elo 37%); Raiders at 49ers, 4 points toward LV, now 79% for the home side (Elo 77%); and 3 more below. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 26, 4 PM ET; last change Sun 3:29 PM ET. No movement in the consensus yet. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (LV) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32% | 32% | — | 26 |
| Kalshi | 32% | 33% | +1 | 86 |
| Sportsbooks | 32% | 34% | +2 | 18 |
Consensus over time