Jaguars at Ravens $211k, Raiders at 49ers $59k, Packers at Patriots $35k traded on Kalshi and Polymarket. The exchanges and the books agree within four points everywhere. Read more →
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New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills
Final, recorded Sun 4:14 PM ET · markets priced Sun 12:54 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Highmark Stadium · Sunday, Oct 4, 1:00 PM ET · outdoors · wind 11 mph, 67°F
Final: NE 29, BUF 26. Elo moved BUF 1621 → 1602 and NE 1551 → 1570.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | BUF | NE | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | BUF 65% | 65% | 35% | -17.2 | BUF 1621 vs NE 1551, implied spread BUF −4.3 |
| Closing spread | BUF 70% | 70% | 30% | -24.0 | BUF -7 |
| Sportsbooks | BUF 74% | 74% | 26% | -29.8 | |
| Kalshi | BUF 74% | 74% | 27% | -29.8 | |
| Polymarket | BUF 74% | 74% | 27% | -29.8 | |
| The blend | BUF 71% | 71% | 29% | -25.4 | |
| The crowd (3) | BUF 66% | 66% | 34% | -18.6 | |
| The sharp crowd | BUF 65% | 65% | 35% | -17.2 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Buffalo Bills over the Patriots: Elo 65%, market 74%. Clear favorite, take the average.
Details
- Importance 44 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 62.
- Rest: BUF 7 days, NE 7 days.
- Quarterbacks. BUF: Josh Allen (-9 Elo). NE: Drake Maye (+1 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 11 mph, 67°F. Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread BUF -7, total 49.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $1.5M traded, $1.4M open · Polymarket: $1.7M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Patriots 29, Bills 26: the upset. New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, Week 4. The Patriots won 29 to 26 as a 74% underdog by the market; the game turned on (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION . Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
An upset: the market had the Patriots at 26%, Elo at 35%, The System at 29%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (-17.2).
- Elo: Patriots 35%, -17.2
- The market: Patriots 26%, -29.8
- The System: Patriots 29%, -25.4
- The crowd: Patriots 34%, -18.6
- The bot crowd: Patriots 29%, -25.4
How it happened
The swing: (Shotgun) D.Maye pass deep right to E.Chism for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. D.Maye pass to R.Stevenson is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS. in the fourth quarter at 1:50, which moved the home side's chances from 67% to 36%.
- Largest lead: Patriots by 7. Lead changes: 4.
- Patriots's live win probability ranged from 15% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 11:07: Tyler Bass 38 Yd Field Goal (NE 21, BUF 20)
- Q4 4:27: Keon Coleman 34 Yd pass from Josh Allen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed) (NE 21, BUF 26)
- Q4 1:50: Efton Chism III 23 Yd pass from Drake Maye (Drake Maye Pass to Rhamondre Stevenson for Two-Point Conversion) (NE 29, BUF 26)
The box score
The Patriots won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: NE 404, BUF 340
- Yards per play: NE 5.5, BUF 6.3
- Third downs: NE 5-12, BUF 6-12
- Turnovers: NE 2, BUF 2
- Penalties: NE 6-35, BUF 5-31
- Possession: NE 33:41, BUF 26:19
- Red zone: NE 3-3, BUF 2-4
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Bills -19 to 1602, Patriots +19 to 1570.
- Drake Maye (NE): 22/37, 269 yds, 3 TD, 1 INT, QBR 97.7
- Josh Allen (BUF): 23/33, 253 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 89.6
- Rushing: James Cook III (BUF), 12 CAR, 75 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Keon Coleman (BUF), 6 REC, 116 YDS, 1 TD
- Rushing: Drake Maye (NE), 8 CAR, 53 YDS
- Receiving: Hunter Henry (NE), 5 REC, 62 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -18.7 and 0 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -26.1 and 0 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: baba, Bills 63%, -14.7.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Sat, Sep 26, 1 PM ET; last change Sun 12:09 PM ET. The consensus has moved toward BUF by 4 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (BUF) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 71% | 74% | +3 | 35 |
| Kalshi | 70% | 74% | +4 | 52 |
| Sportsbooks | 69% | 74% | +5 | 17 |
Consensus over time