New York Jets at Chicago Bears
Game data updated 3 min ago · this page re-reads every 10 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Sunday, Oct 4, 5:00 PM · outdoors
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CHI | NYJ | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CHI 69% | 69% | 31% | CHI 1557 vs NYJ 1444, implied spread CHI −5.5 |
| Closing spread | CHI 74% | 74% | 26% | CHI -8.5 |
| The blend | CHI 72% | 72% | 28% |
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The spot: Clear favorite, mild disagreement
Both favor the same team by 60% or more, but they differ by 4 to 10 points. Replays: favorites won about as often as the average of the two forecasts said (no surplus either way). The blend without a bump. Nothing to exploit; take the average.
Chicago Bears over the Jets: Elo 69%, market 74%. Clear favorite, take the average. Smith is worth 22 Elo.
Details
- Rest: CHI 6 days, NYJ 7 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: CHI 0 (Caleb Williams), NYJ +22 (Geno Smith). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Sunday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.