Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
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Week 4, 2026 · Friday, Oct 2, 12:15 AM · outdoors
Pittsburgh Steelers1–0 · Elo 1526 · Aaron Rodgers
Cleveland Browns
0–1 · Elo 1423 · Deshaun Watson (+34) · Home
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CLE | PIT | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | PIT 53% | 47% | 53% | CLE 1423 vs PIT 1526, implied spread CLE +0.8 |
| Closing spread | PIT 57% | 43% | 57% | CLE +2.5 |
| The blend | PIT 56% | 44% | 56% |
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The spot: Everything else
Moderate favorites where the models roughly agree. No edge found either way in the replays. The blend is as good as anything.
Pittsburgh Steelers over the Browns: Elo 53%, market 57%. Nothing to exploit; the blend is fine. Watson is worth 34 Elo.
Details
- Rest: CLE 4 days, PIT 4 days.
- Quarterback adjustment: CLE +34 (Deshaun Watson), PIT -2 (Aaron Rodgers). How that works.
- Weather. Outdoors. The kickoff forecast is pulled from Open-Meteo once the game is within 7 days, from Friday.
Line movement
No market has priced this game yet. Kalshi and Polymarket usually list games about a week out; sportsbooks earlier.