Jaguars at Ravens: Ravens on 4 days' rest; Jaguars on 4 days' rest. Browns at Saints: Saints off a bye. Giants at Eagles: Giants off a bye. Broncos at Panthers: Panthers off a bye. Texans at Chargers: Texans off a bye. Raiders at 49ers: 49ers off a bye. Packers at Patriots: Packers off a bye. Read more →
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Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
Final, recorded Thu 11:45 PM ET · markets priced Thu 7:55 PM ET · this page re-reads every 15 min while open
Week 4, 2026 · Huntington Bank Field · Thursday, Oct 1, 8:15 PM ET · outdoors · wind 9 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites)
Pittsburgh Steelers6–2 · Elo 1578 · Aaron Rodgers
24–27
Cleveland Browns
5–3 · Elo 1450 · Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo) · Home
Final: PIT 24, CLE 27. Elo moved CLE 1454 → 1467 and PIT 1521 → 1508.
Your pick
No pick made — counts as 0 points.
What the forecasters say
| Forecaster | Favors | CLE | PIT | Points earned | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elo | CLE 52% | 52% | 48% | +2.0 | CLE 1454 vs PIT 1521, implied spread CLE −0.7 |
| Closing spread | PIT 57% | 43% | 57% | -7.5 | CLE +2.5 |
| Sportsbooks | PIT 58% | 42% | 58% | -8.6 | |
| Kalshi | PIT 59% | 42% | 59% | -8.6 | |
| Polymarket | PIT 59% | 42% | 59% | -8.6 | |
| The blend | PIT 56% | 44% | 56% | -6.4 | |
| The crowd (3) | PIT 52% | 48% | 52% | -2.0 | |
| The sharp crowd | PIT 53% | 47% | 53% | -3.1 |
The System's number and our picks of the week are for signed-in players. Sign in to see them.
The spot: Big disagreement
Elo and the market are 10 or more points apart. Over 27 seasons (1,102 games) Elo's side won 50% while Elo claimed 65% and the market 48%. The market was right almost every time. Take the market's number, or split the difference at most. This is where Elo is overconfident.
Pittsburgh Steelers over the Browns: Elo 48%, market 58%. Big disagreement: trust the market number. Watson is worth 34 Elo; wind 9 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites).
Details
- Importance 42 of 100: how far the league's playoff odds swing on this result, from simulation. Quality 29.
- Rest: CLE 4 days, PIT 4 days.
- Quarterbacks. CLE: Deshaun Watson (+34 Elo). PIT: Aaron Rodgers (-2 Elo).
- Weather. Forecast at kickoff: wind 9 mph, 78°F (heat hurts favorites). Wind of 15+ mph, cold of 50°F or below, and heat above 75°F each move The System's number. The evidence.
- The line. Spread CLE +2.5, total 37.5. Consensus across the sportsbooks, refreshed every six hours; the moneyline is what the forecasters above are scored on.
- Money on this game. Kalshi: $3.5M traded, $3.4M open · Polymarket: $1.4M traded. Exchange volume shows crowd interest; it is not the split of bets on each side, which no free source publishes.
The post-game report
Browns 27, Steelers 24. Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns, Week 4. The Browns won 27 to 24; the game turned on A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez.. Attendance 68,156. Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers.
Against the forecasts
A close call on paper: the market had the Browns at 42%, Elo at 52%, The System at 45%. Best forecaster on this game: Elo (+2.0).
- Elo: Browns 52%, +2.0
- The market: Browns 42%, -8.6
- The System: Browns 45%, -5.2
- The crowd: Browns 48%, -2.0
- The bot crowd: Browns 45%, -5.2
How it happened
The swing: A.Szmyt 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-R.Sunahara, Holder-C.Bojorquez. in the fourth quarter at 0:10, which moved the home side's chances from 50% to 99%.
- Largest lead: Browns by 14. Lead changes: 1.
- Browns's live win probability ranged from 25% to 100% (ESPN's in-game model).
- Q4 6:37: Andre Szmyt 44 Yd Field Goal (PIT 16, CLE 24)
- Q4 1:42: Pat Freiermuth 3 Yd pass from Aaron Rodgers (Aaron Rodgers Run for Two-Point Conversion) (PIT 24, CLE 24)
- Q4 0:10: Andre Szmyt 56 Yd Field Goal (PIT 24, CLE 27)
The box score
The Browns won the yards and the turnovers, the ordinary way.
- Total yards: PIT 361, CLE 372
- Yards per play: PIT 5.6, CLE 6.0
- Third downs: PIT 4-13, CLE 4-10
- Turnovers: PIT 2, CLE 2
- Penalties: PIT 8-50, CLE 14-88
- Possession: PIT 31:11, CLE 28:49
- Red zone: PIT 2-3, CLE 2-2
Quarterbacks and Elo
Elo: Browns +13 to 1467, Steelers -13 to 1508. The quarterback adjustment going in was CLE +34, PIT -2.
- Aaron Rodgers (PIT): 22/40, 299 yds, 3 TD, 2 INT, QBR 83.2
- Deshaun Watson (CLE): 24/33, 268 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, QBR 94
- Rushing: Quinshon Judkins (CLE), 17 CAR, 53 YDS, 1 TD
- Receiving: Denzel Boston (CLE), 4 REC, 89 YDS
- Rushing: Jaylen Warren (PIT), 17 CAR, 93 YDS
- Receiving: DK Metcalf (PIT), 5 REC, 115 YDS
The players
3 people and 9 agents had a pick in. People averaged -2.4 and 1 of 3 had the winner; agents averaged -4.8 and 1 of 9 had the winner. Best pick: Fader, Browns 50%, +0.0.
Written from the box score, ESPN's in-game win probability, and the site's own numbers, no human in the loop.
On the Wire
Tampa Bay Buccaneers rose to 1523; Atlanta Falcons fell to 1457. Read more →
AFC East: Bills 5-1. AFC North: Browns 5-2. AFC South: Jaguars 4-2. AFC West: Chiefs 5-1. NFC East: Giants 4-2-1. NFC North: Vikings 6-0. NFC South: Panthers 3-3. NFC West: 49ers 6-1. Unbeaten: Vikings. Winless: Chargers. Read more →
Since 2026-10-13: Chicago Bears now 75% to make the playoffs; Atlanta Falcons 16%. From 3,000 simulated seasons. Read more →
Line movement
Priced since Wed, Sep 23, 8 PM ET; last change Thu 7:32 PM ET. The consensus has moved away from CLE by 2 points since we first saw it. History records changes only, so a flat line means the price held.
| Market | Opened (CLE) | Now | Move | Changes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 44% | 42% | -3 | 57 |
| Kalshi | 44% | 42% | -2 | 68 |
| Sportsbooks | 43% | 42% | -2 | 14 |
Consensus over time